Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 2019: Prediction Against The Spread, Week 1 Betting Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs might be the best team in the 2019 NFL season, coming off an appearance in the AFC Championship Game with the MVP at quarterback. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will cover the spread in Week 1 when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Kansas City is a 3.5-point road favorite Sunday afternoon, according to the latest betting line at OddsShark. The total is 51.5 in a matchup between what might be the conference’s No.1 offense and the AFC’s best defense.

The Chiefs and Jaguars met at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 5 of the 2018 season. The matchup could provide a glimpse of what’s to come in the opener.

Even though Kansas City cruised to a 30-14 victory over Jacksonville a year ago, there are reasons to believe Sunday’s contest will be much more competitive.

Patrick Mahomes had arguably his worst game of the season when the Chiefs beat the Jaguars. During a year in which he had 50 touchdown passes, the quarterback threw for no scores and two interceptions against Jacksonville. Mahomes’ 62.7 passer rating was easily his worst of the season.

It was no fluke that the Jaguars caused the NFL’s best quarterback to struggle. Jacksonville finished the 2018 season ranked sixth with an opponents’ passer rating of 84.4. The Jaguars were second in both passing yards and passing touchdowns surrendered.

Jacksonville had the best passing defense by far in 2017, limiting opposing quarterbacks to 169.9 yards per game and a 68.5 passer rating.

You can count on the Jaguars to have an elite defense again in 2019. It was the offense that let the team down in last year’s 5-11 campaign. The Jaguars lost five games in which they allowed 20 points or fewer.

Blake Bortles’ four interceptions buried Jacksonville against Kansas City last October. One of those picks was returned for a touchdown. The quarterback’s five turnovers didn’t allow Jacksonville to take advantage of the success they had on the ground with 101 yards on just 17 attempts.

Things should be a little different Sunday with Nick Foles under center. The former Super Bowl MVP is the league’s most unpredictable quarterback, looking like a star one week and a backup in the next game.

No matter which Foles shows up Sunday, it’s a safe bet that he won’t give the ball away five times. The Chiefs have one of the NFL’s worst defenses. The Jaguars will be able to move the ball at times, despite their lack of reliable playmakers.

Kansas City gave up more than 20 points in every road game last season. Six of the Chiefs’ eight road opponents scored at least 28 points.

Jacksonville won’t need to score a ton of points at home in order to remain competitive. No visiting team scored more than 20 points at TIAA Bank Field in 2018. That included the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers, all of whom ranked in the top six in points scored.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are likely to leave Jacksonville with a victory. Doing so just might be a little more difficult than some would expect.

Prediction Against The Spread: Kansas City over Jacksonville, 23-20