Kentucky Derby 2015: Expert Predictions, Latest Betting Odds For Saturday's Race

Carpe Diem Kentucky Derby 2015 — Trainer Todd Pletcher's Carpe Diem is the pick of some experts to upset favorites American Pharoah and Dortmund in the Kentucky Derby Saturday. Reuters

It appears most experts from the world of thoroughbred racing side with odds makers when it comes to who will win the 2015 Kentucky Derby Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Of the 13 experts polled by The Courier-Journal, six selected odds-on favorite American Pharoah to claim the 141 st Run for the Roses, while five picked Dortmund. The only horse not trained by Bob Baffert picked to claim the first leg of the Triple Crown was Todd Pletcher’s Carpe Diem.

Almost all of the experts predicted a trifecta, in some order, of American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, and Dortmund.

After each participant was assigned their post Wednesday afternoon, the latest odds have shifted slightly but American Pharoah and Dortmund are still far and away the horses to beat in the 20-deep field.

Baffert, who’s seeking his first Derby victory since War Emblem’s blazing run in 2002, likened his two stars to two of the best athletes and performers in the last 20 years. He also hinted neither thoroughbred may have really tapped into their potential yet.

"They're two different types," Baffert said to The Courier-Journal. "Dortmund, he's all lanky -- built like a greyhound. This horse (American Pharoah) -- he's more of a full package. Like Shaq and Kobe Bryant, you know? But they're both really good horses, and we don't know how good they really are."

Positioned out of the No. 18 post, American Pharoah’s line moved from 9/4 to 5/2, according to Bovada.lv. Dortmund, who will start near the middle of the track at No. 8, shifted from 9/2 to 3/1, and out of the No. 2 spot Carpe Diem went from 7/1 to 8/1. It’s a very slight downgrade for the Blue Grass Stakes-victor but odds maker might be worried the three-year-old colt will get jammed up along the rail early out of the gate.

Of Pletcher’s three other contenders, Materiality landed at the No. 3 post and saw his odds hold pat at 12/1. Stanford, another of Pletcher’s group, shot up from 60/1 to 30/1 as he’ll burst out of the No. 11 post with less risk of getting pinned on the rail or the outside early.

Runner-up at both the 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby and Islamorada last month, Stanford was picked by only one expect, The Courier-Journal’s J.J. Hysell, to finish higher than 12th place. She slotted Stanford in fourth place, with Dortmund first, American Pharoah second, and International Star in third.

A winner in three straight races and five out of his nine career starts, International Star finished atop the Derby prep race standings and he’ll start from the No. 12 post next to Stanford. However, trainer Michael J. Maker’s top contender saw his odds move down from 18/1 to 20/1.

Below are each expert’s picks for Derby.

Expert Predictions

John Asher, Churchill Downs racing analyst

Pick: Carpe Diem

Jilly Byrne, Churchill Downs handicapper, Director of Programming

Pick: American Pharoah

Ed DeRosa, Brisnet.com

Pick: American Pharoah

James Scully, Editor of Handicapper’s Edge, Bloodstock Journal

Pick: Dortmund

Dave Grening, Daily Racing Form

Pick: American Pharoah