Latest Florida Election Polls Give Biden Edge, Coronavirus Pandemic Looming As Major Issue

If President Donald Trump was counting on seniors to hand him a victory in Florida on election night, he might be in for a rude awakening: Two of three polls released Tuesday indicate Democratic presidential rival Joe Biden has a solid lead in the key swing state.

A University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll indicated Biden has a 6-point lead over Trump in the Sunshine State while a CNBC-Change Research poll gives Biden a 4-point lead. A USA Today-Suffolk University poll indicates the candidates are tied.

The results are consistent with other polls taken since mid-September.

Florida has played a key role in the last several presidential elections, famously holding up results in 2000 because of thousands of hanging chads. The state has 29 electoral votes and went Republican eight times in the last 12 presidential elections, including 2016 when Trump won the state with 49% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 47.8%. This year, Florida is considered a tossup.

“All of the Republican leaders in the state are underwater in their approval ratings, perhaps due to voter’s concerns about their connections to Trump,” said Michael Binder, director of the Public Opinion Research Lab.

Republican political consultant Frank Luntz said the key to the Florida vote likely will be voter registration and turnout. He said Republicans have been able to win the state relatively consistently because Democrats are less likely to go to the polls.

Fifty-eight percent of those queried by Suffolk University rated Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has affected older Americans disproportionately, as poor to fair. Only 18% gave him high marks. The Change Research results were similar: 54% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the pandemic.

The president, a transplanted Floridian who has flouted public health recommendations, has called for an easing of coronavirus guidelines to speed reopening of the economy, but the University of North Florida poll indicated 67% of voters are more concerned about public health than the economy.

“The past week has done nothing to ease concerns as the virus has swept through the president’s inner circle,” Binder said.

FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver said Trump’s Tuesday COVID tweets likely will be received negatively.

Trump’s remarks on Social Security and Medicare also have alarmed seniors, who make up nearly a third of Florida’s population and generally represent the largest voting block in any election.

Decision Desk HQ, which collects election night data, said Florida was supposed to be Trump’s secret weapon, with the Trump team leaning hard on socialism – anathema to a sizable Cuban population in the state who fled Fidel Castro. But Florida seniors aren’t buying Trump’s allegation that electing Biden would lead to socialism.

“The right has no clue what socialism is,” Cuban American Teresa Gavaldá, 79, recently told NPR Boston outlet WBUR.

Trump’s Twitter habits also are an irritant.

“I'm leaning toward Biden because we just need somebody that's not going to be so harsh toward other people and speak with a civil tongue,” retired National Weather Service meteorologist Randy Lascody told WBUR.

Trump’s inability to bring the coronavirus pandemic under control also has turned into a major negative, Decision Desk said.

A New York Times poll of seniors in battleground states indicated Biden is favored by 7 points.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who flamed out in the Democratic primaries in the spring, has poured money into the Florida race on Biden’s behalf, paying off millions of dollars in fines for released felons so they can register to vote.