Latest Iowa Polls: Is Biden Or Trump Leading In The Crucial Swing State?

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading Republican President Donald Trump in the key swing state of Iowa, according to two polls released on Wednesday.

A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden leading Trump by 3 points in Iowa, 46%-43%. The survey of 753 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 18-20, has a 3.9 point margin of error.

A Monmouth University survey also shows Biden with a 3-point lead over the incumbent in Iowa, 50%-47%. The poll of 501 likely voters, conducted from Oct. 15-19, has a 4.4 point margin of error.

In 2016, Trump won Iowa, which has 6 electoral votes, by over 9 points against Democrat Hillary Clinton, 51.2% to 41.7%.

Major issues for Iowans include the coronavirus pandemic, the U.S.-China trade war and the economy. Iowa is also reeling from a derecho wind storm in August, which devastated farmland across the state.

Trump held a rally last week in Des Moines, where he complained that the media covered flooding in the state over his Nobel Prize nominations.

“I got nominated for the Nobel Prize. I get home and turn on the TV. They’re talking about your floods in Iowa,” Trump said. The president confused flooding in 2019 with coverage of the recent derecho in the state.

Iowa has grappled with a surge in coronavirus cases in recent weeks. Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said voters in the state are growing increasingly tired of Trump’s behavior amid the pandemic.

“A lot of people here have grown exhausted with him. And the feeling that he’s been acting unpresidential has really begun to stick with voters here at exactly the wrong time for him,” Hagle recently told NBC News, referring to Trump.

Iowa is also home to a major Senate race this cycle. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, who is seeking a second term, is in a tough battle with Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield.

The NYT/Siena poll shows Ernst leading Greenfield by 1 point, 45%-44%. The Monmouth survey shows Greenfield leading Ernst by 2 points, 49% 47%.

Both candidates come from farming backgrounds. During a recent debate, Ernst was asked about the break-even price of soybeans. Ernst answered $5.50, which was well below the actual price of $10.05. Greenfield then correctly answered a question about the price of corn.

The Cook Political Report rates the Iowa Senate race as a “toss up.”