KEY POINTS

  • The almanac’s editor said the coming winter could be one of the “longest and coldest”
  • The almanac forecast super cold weather “throughout Ohio Valley”
  • NSW said in its September-November forecast that the Great Lakes region could see 40-50 percent chance of above-average temperatures
  • Questions over the almanac’s accuracy have been raised over the years

The winter this year will be longer and chillier, an almanac with hundreds of years' history behind it has predicted. Interestingly, it claims the formula it used to maked the prediction was devised all the way back in 1792.

In its Winter Weather Forecast for 2021-2022, the Old Farmer’s Almanac warned that people should “prepare for a ‘Season of Shivers’”. The Old Farmer’s Almanac editor Janice Stillman said “this coming winter could be well one of the longest and coldest that we’ve seen in years.”

The forecast went on to note that some areas in New England, the Ohio Valley, north of the Deep South and southeast New Mexico will experience a wintry mix of generous snow and “super cold.” The almanac added that “eastern Montana southward through the western halves of the Dakotas and into northeastern Colorado” will experience above-average snowfall.

The almanac said it uses a weather-predicting formula devised by its founder, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. The almanac also said that data on the said formula are “locked in a black box” within its offices. However, the almanac’s website said things have changed over years since its founding as “state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations” have improved the formula.

Questions have been raised over the almanac’s accuracy over the years, including a two-time accuracy review by meteorologist Jan Null with a rating of “good” for only 25 percent of the 57 regions reviewed in the almanac’s precipitation and temperature predictions, USA Today reported.

The Chillicothe Gazette also noted that federal agencies said forecasts beyond 10 days get it right only about half of the time. The agencies said five-day forecasts are right about 90 percent of the time. The almanac is known for its long-term weather forecasts that come out annually.

In its September to November weather forecast, the National Weather Service (NWS) predicted a 40-50 percent chance of above-average temperatures in the Great Lakes region, which includes Ohio. The NWS also forecasted precipitation to be within normal levels in the region, while the almanac suggested that Ohio Valley, which includes a good portion of Ohio, will experience an “extreme wintry mix.”

Check out Twitter users' mixed comments about the almanac's latest edition:

Home construction restarted in earnest across the United States in March after bad winter weather forced many firms to slow work the month prior
Home construction restarted in earnest across the United States in March after bad winter weather forced many firms to slow work the month prior GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / JUSTIN SULLIVAN
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