The NCAA Tournament always features shocking first-round upsets, and March Madness 2022 should be no different. Final Four contenders are almost certain to lose on either Thursday or Friday in the opening weekend of the Big Dance.

Only one No. 16 seed has ever advanced beyond the first round of the NCAA Tournament. It’s rare, but not unheard of, for a No. 15 seed to upset a No. 2 seed, considering it’s happened nine times in history. A No. 14 seed has beaten a No. 3 seed on 22 occasions. The No. 13 seed beats the No. 4 seed 21.5% of the time.

Picking at least one No. 12 seed when filling out your bracket is a smart strategy. Since 1985, No. 12 seeds have won 35% of their matchups with No. 5 seeds.

Here are five upset predictions for the first round of March Madness 2022.

No. 10 Loyola Chicago over No. 7 Ohio State

Don’t be shocked if Loyola Chicago makes it to the second weekend of March Madness for the third time since 2018. Most of the Ramblers’ key players were on last year’s team that reached the Sweet Sixteen. Led by two-time Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year Lucas Williamson, Loyola ranks 21st in defensive efficiency. Ohio State is 1-4 in its last five games.

No. 10 Davidson over No. 7 Michigan State

Davidson is not an easy team to play. The Wildcats ranks in the top 11 in the nation in both fewest turnovers per game and 3-point percentage. Leading scorer Foster Loyer could give Michigan State problems. The Spartans’ offense, which ranks 95th in efficiency, will be the team’s undoing.

No. 11 Virginia Tech over No. 6 Texas

The Hokies are playing their best basketball at the right time. Virginia Tech beat three tournament teams on its way toward winning the ACC Championship. Texas is overseeded after going 21-11. The Longhorns are on a three-game losing streak and have only beaten one tournament team away from home.

No. 12 Richmond over No. 5 Iowa

Iowa will probably be a popular Final Four pick on the heels of winning the Big Ten Championship. Making it out of the first round, however, won’t be easy for the Hawkeyes. Richmond won the championship in an underrated Atlantic 10 Conference. Forwards Tyler Burton and Grant Golden are averaging a combined 30.4 points and 13.8 rebounds per game. Iowa is 145th in defensive efficiency.

No. 13 Chattanooga over No. 4 Illinois

Despite winning a share of the Big Ten regular-season championship, Illinois is vulnerable to being upset. The Fighting Illini have been defeated by two teams that missed the tournament entirely and two teams that were relegated to the First Four. Chattanooga’s Malachi Smith averages 20.1 points per game and can carry the Mocs to an unexpected victory.

NCAA Tournament Bracket
A general view of a giant NCAA Championship bracket adorning the facade of the JW Marriott hotel on Feb. 27, 2021, in Indianapolis, Indiana. Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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