Maruti Suzuki: Analysts Cut Forecasts; Manesar Shutdown Continues

Maruti Suzuki shares fell 2.7 percent in the morning trading Monday, following a 22.84 percent drop in its first quarter net profit even as analysts started revising the company's stocks, indicating a not-so-good future ahead.

Maruti Suzuki, India's largest carmaker, Saturday reported a net profit of Rs 4.24 billion for the quarter ending June 30, against Rs 5.49-billion profit it earned in the same quarter last year.

The company attributed the sharp decline in the net profits to the rupee depreciation that escalated the input and other expenditures.

The company's net sales for the first quarter registered a robust growth of 27.53 percent to Rs 105.29 billion from Rs 82.57 billion in the same period last year.

However, the company is set to face its worst results in the second quarter ahead as, apart from the Forex volatility, the recent labor violence at its Manesar plant in Haryana has led to an indefinite shutdown, effecting the production of Swift and DZire, its two most popular models.

Though booking are on at present for these two models, Maruti has said it doesn't have any stock of the Swift and DZire cars. As Manesar is the only plant that produces these models, an early reopening of the plant is crucial for the company to maintain its edge over the rivals.

However, considering the seriousness of the situation that exists at the Manesar plant after the violent clashes between the workers and management that left an HR manager dead, chances of an immediate reopening is bleak.

The current uncertainty over the company's production has prompted the analysts to downwardly revise the company's EPS estimates.

"We believe Maruti will lose market share in the short term, but if it decides to restart the plant within the next 10-15 days, it is unlikely to lose customers to competitors. But if the lockout extends beyond a month or more, then its customers are likely to shift. We may revise our estimates if lockout extends for more than a month," Brics analysts were quoted as saying by Moneycontrol.com.

Edelweiss Securities has cut Maruti's EPS forecast for FY13 and FY14 by 24 percent and 9 percent respectively.

Maruti Suzuki shares were trading 0.35 percent up at Rs. 1114.50 on the BSE and flat at Rs.1112 on the NSE at noon. The stock dropped over 2.7percent to Rs 1082.65 in the morning session.