Michigan vs. Florida State 2016: Early Prediction, Spread, Preview For Orange Bowl

Finishing just two spots shy of a College Football Playoff berth, the No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (10-2) were looking to end what’s largely been a special season on a high note when they face the No. 11 Florida State (9-3) Seminoles Friday, Dec. 30, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh and Michigan were in contention for a CFP spot throughout the season, but costly losses to Big Ten rivals Iowa and Ohio State in two of their final three regular season games bumped the Wolverines from the national championship tournament.

Still, Michigan did post a double-digit win total in consecutive seasons for the first time in 13 years – 2003 under former head coach Lloyd Carr was the last time – and were favored to win a second-straight bowl game since 2000 by a touchdown, according to Bovada.lv.

The game line suggested oddsmakers have faith that Michigan starting quarterback and junior Wilton Speight will play over senior John O’Korn. Speight suffered a shoulder injury against Iowa and O’Korn filled in for the 20-10 victory over Indiana. But as recently as late last month, both passers were taking reps in practice before the loss to Ohio State and leading receiver Amara Darboh said he was taking reps with both players while running back De’Veon Smith wouldn’t comment, the Detroit Free-Press reported.

Speight was expected to play, but it’s the Wolverine’s defense, led by Heisman Trophy candidate and do-it-all linebacker Jabrill Peppers, that could cap Michigan’s season with a win. The junior played 15 different positions this season while collecting 72 tackles, including 16 for a loss, 4.0 sacks and an interception.

Peppers’ dominance helped the Wolverines rank second in the nation in both points allowed and team sacks, second only to Alabama and Florida State, respectively. He’s joined by senior defensive ends Taco Charlton (8.5 sacks) and Chris Wormley (6.0) and junior pass rusher Chase Winovich (5.0).

The Seminoles and head coach Jimbo Fisher, who agreed to a contract extension through 2024, also faced a fall from grace after earning a No. 7 ranking in the preseason poll. Florida State began the season with a huge win over then-No. 11 Ole Miss, but stumbled against No. 10 Louisville, and fell to eventual ACC champion Clemson by three points in October.

The Seminoles, seeking their first bowl victory since capturing the national championship in the 2013 season, will roll out the country’s No. 31 scoring powered by freshman quarterback Deondre Francois and junior running back Dalvin Cook. Francois finished sixth in the ACC with 3,128 passing yards and 18 touchdowns to six interceptions while Cook lit up and led the conference with 1,620 yards and 18 touchdowns, his third straight year with at least 1,000 yards and second with 1,600-plus.

But Florida State is also dealing with numerous injuries up and down its defense, and Michigan could capitalize and build a hole the Seminoles won’t be able to escape. Defensive end Jacob Pugh (concussion), and defensive backs Marcus Lewis (hip) and A.J. Westbrook (concussion), to name just a few, are all hurt and their status for the Orange Bowl is unknown.

Betting Odds: Michigan -7 (-105), Florida State +7 (-115) via Bovada.lv

Prediction: Michigan over Florida State, 37-17