Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors Game 6: Prediction, Pick Against The Spread In 2019 NBA Playoffs

Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors have completely changed the narrative surrounding the Eastern Conference Finals. In less than a week, we’ve gone from talking about the Milwaukee Bucks as a real threat to the Golden State Warriors to Toronto finding a way to stop the team that was the NBA’s best for seven months.

The Raptors are one win away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time franchise history. All they have to do is defeat the Bucks Saturday night at home in Game 6. It’s something that’d be hard to bet against after watching the last three contests.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was an unstoppable force that drove the conference’s most efficient offense for 93 games. Toronto’s defense has turned the Bucks into an offensively-challenged group that can’t score in the half-court.

The series changed when the Raptors made Leonard Antetokounmpo’s primary defender. The move by head coach Nick Nurse also ended the debate regarding the best player in the East, and it’s going to be what ultimately decides this series.

Antetokounmpo is likely going to win the regular-season MVP award. He hasn't come close to reaching that level of play since the start of Game 3. The 24-year-old scored just 12 points in Game 3 and was a minus-19 in Game 4. He had more than respectable numbers (24-6-6) in Game 5, but his offensive impact was lacking when being guarded by Toronto’s best player.

Leonard guarded Antetokounmpo on 37 possessions Thursday night, limiting him to 10 points on those possessions. Antetokounmpo is seven-of-22 from the field when guarded by Leonard in the half-court in the last three games, per ESPN.

Milwaukee had a disastrous 72.9 offensive rating on those possessions. For the entirety of Game 5, the Bucks had an 83.1 offensive rating in the half-court.

The Bucks led the East with a 113.5 offensive rating in the regular season.

Leonard and the Raptors have taken advantage of Antetokounmpo’s lack of a jump shot. Toronto’s swarming defense has limited his clean looks at the basket. Antetokounmpo has been bothered by the Raptors’ help defense, totaling 14 turnovers and 18 assists in Milwaukee’s three losses.

Maybe Antetokounmpo will figure out a way to create more offense. It just doesn’t seem likely, and he’s going up against a superstar that continues to raise his game in the biggest moments.

Leonard has been outstanding on both ends of the floor. When he’s not slowing down Antetokounmpo, he’s averaging 30.4 points with a 58.9 true shooting percentage. Leonard has even been a more effective playmaker lately than Antetokounmpo, finding open shooters that led to nine Game 5 assists.

Those shooters have also started to make more shots. Fred VanVleet has gone from being borderline unplayable to a guy that can’t miss. The backup guard is 10-12 from three-point range in the last two games. He had missed 16 of his previous 19 attempts.

Milwaukee’s role players have shrunk since going up 2-0. Khris Middleton scored six points on nine shots Thursday night. Eric Bledsoe was five-of-23 from the field in Toronto. The Bucks have no chance if those two players are going to have that kind of production.

It’s really anyone’s guess as to how the two supporting casts will perform in Game 6.

The Raptors’ bench has been much better at home this postseason. Kyle Lowry has been very good against the Bucks. Toronto has the edge at home, but Brook Lopez or Malcolm Brogdon could just as easily come up with big shots to keep Milwaukee in it. Middleton had 30 points on 15 field-goal attempts north of the border just a few nights ago.

What seems to be clear is that Toronto will have the best player on the floor. Leonard’s ability on both sides of the ball has changed the series.

The Raptors are 2.5-point favorites in Game 6, according to OddsShark. Lay the points and bet on the team that will have the most valuable superstar.

Game 6 Prediction: Toronto over Milwaukee, 106-100