Minnesota, Tampa Expected To Challenge Yankees, Astros Atop American League

Although the first pitch of exhibition season hasn’t been thrown yet, the New York Yankees will only win 99 games despite adding ace Gerrit Cole, according to a website devoted to the sabermetric analysis of baseball. Houston will win 98 as visitors boo the cheaters in every visiting ballpark.

The Bronx Bombers open the season without a fifth starter as James Paxton is expected to miss up to four months recovering from back surgery. Center fielder Aaron Hicks returns from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees lost shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances through free agency.

Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) foresees the Astros being bolstered with Lance McCullers Jr. returning to the rotation after Tommy John surgery. However, Houston lost Will Harris, Wade Miley, Robinson Chirinos and Cole during the offseason. PECOTA was developed by FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver.

Most Improved Teams

Minnesota is expected to win the Central with 93 wins. The Twins won the penultimate off-season free agent sweepstakes signing third baseman Josh Donaldson to a four-year $84 million deal. The signing is risky. Donaldson was slowed by injuries in 2018 but recovered to hit 37 home runs for Atlanta last year.

The Twins’ added quality starting pitching to assist José Berríos. The latest move was trading for Kenta Maeda. Earlier the club signed the once-promising Homer Bailey and Rich Hill, who will be 40 on opening day, as free agents.

The Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, LA Angeles and Oakland A’s are predicted to win 87, 86, 86 and 85 games, respectively.

The Rays traded from strength to weakness sending reliever Emilio Pagán to San Diego for center fielder Manuel Margot and catching prospect Logan Driscoll. Margot hits lefties well and plays stellar defense. Tampa improved its power and speed sending prospects to St. Louis for first baseman Jose Martinez and outfielder Randy Arozarena.

Although the Angels won the free agent sweepstakes claiming third baseman Anthony Rendon from Washington, the Angels pitching is so poor a Rendon-Mike Trout punch is only expected to go so far.

The Halos added Julio Teheran in December, but his fastball fell off 5 mph in the past five years to 89.5 and he was kept off Braves layoff roster in 2019. Angels shored up a weakness at catcher adding Jason Castro.

Cleveland ace Mike Clevinger underwent left knee surgery Feb. 14. No one knows when he will return. Clevinger missed two months last year with back problems. The Tribe’s big off-season move was dumping the contract of Corey Kluber.

Oakland hopes this is the year for rookie second baseman Franklin Barreto. He has shown speed and a steady bat in the minors, but hasn’t hit major league pitching in three previous call ups. The job is Tony Kemp's to lose. The As stood pat in the winter. The team has won 97 games for two years in a row.