MLB 2018 Win Totals: Over/Under Predictions, Betting Odds For Baseball Season

There is a significant gap between baseball’s elite teams and the league’s worst teams at the start of the 2018 MLB season. Seven teams are projected to win more than 90 games, and four teams are projected to win fewer than 70 games. For a third of the league, going 75-87 would be considered exceeding expectations.

Below are projected win totals and over/under predictions for every team heading into the upcoming season. All betting odds are courtesy of OddsShark.

Los Angeles Dodgers Under 96.5 Wins (Over +115/Under -145)

It’ll be just about impossible for L.A. to be as good as they were last season when they led MLB with 104 wins. The Dodgers lost Yu Darvish and a few key relievers in free agency without making any major additions. They are the NL West favorites with baseball’s best starting pitcher, arguably the best closer (Kenley Jansen) and three All-Star infielders (Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager). Playing in a tough division with three other playoff contenders, look for the Dodgers to win between 91 and 94 games, which they did each year from 2013-2016.

Houston Astros Under 96.5 Wins (-135/+105)

Despite having maybe the best roster in baseball, winning at least 97 games will be a tall order for Houston. The World Series hangover effect seems to be real since the last nine champions have finished the next season with a worse record. A couple of AL West teams should be improved after 80 percent of the division had a losing record in 2017. The Astros, of course, should make the playoffs with a full season of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the rotation and a lineup that led the league in runs scored last year.

New York Yankees Over 94.5 Wins (-115/-115)

There’s more hype surrounding this Yankees’ season than any in the last nine years, and for good reason. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are legitimate MVP candidates in a lineup that could challenge the team home run record. New York’s bullpen features more potentially dominant relievers than any other team. Even the rotation, which is the Yankees’ weakness, is led by last year’s No.3 finisher in the AL Cy Young voting. New York will make a trade if they fail to live up to expectations, and they can be the best team in baseball if they get major contributions from rookies that are ready to make the jump from the minors.

Chicago Cubs Over 94.5 Wins (-120-/110)

Chicago might be the best bet to represent the NL in the World Series. They’ve made three trips to the NLDS, and their slow start last season seemed to be the result of a World Series hangover. Replacing Jake Arrieta with Yu Darvish in the rotation could prove to be an upgrade, and the Cubs arguably have the NL’s most talented lineup.

Cleveland Indians Over 94.5 Wins (-135/+105)

Are the Indians eight games worse than they were a year ago? That’s what it would take for them to go under their projected win total. Cleveland is the best team in a weak division that likely only has one other playoff contender. The Indians could very well have the AL’s best record if their rotation can stay healthy for most of the year.

Washington Nationals Over 92.5 Wins (-200/+160)

After winning at least 95 games in three of the last four years, don’t be surprised if the Nationals win 100 games. They’re the class of a weak division that could feature a couple of the league’s worst teams. Washington has multiple Cy Young candidates (Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg), the MVP frontrunner (Bryce Harper) and a contender to win the batting title (Daniel Murphy).

Boston Red Sox Under 91.5 Wins (-165+135)

If you’re going to pick the Yankees to win at least 95 games, it only makes sense to take the Red Sox at under 91.5 victories. The signing of J.D. Martinez won’t give Boston the added power that they desperately need if he misses a good chunk of the season with injuries, which he’s done for much of his career. Question marks at the backend of the rotation could also make it a challenge for the Red Sox to win more than 90 games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 85.5 Wins (-105/-125)

With San Francisco suffering a couple of significant injuries in spring training, the door is open for Arizona to establish themselves as the greatest threat to L.A. in the NL West. The Diamondbacks’ pitching staff might be the most underrated in MLB with four starters in their prime and Zack Greinke leading the way.

St. Louis Cardinals Under 85.5 Wins (-140/+110)

No longer is it safe to pencil in the Cardinals as playoff contenders. St. Louis has missed the postseason in two straight years, and although they did trade for Marcell Ozuna, Lance Lynn is no longer in the rotation. The Cardinals are the third-best team in the NL Central, and they might be lucky to win the second NL Wild-Card spot.

Milwaukee Brewers Over 84.5 Wins (-135/+105)

Milwaukee is the biggest threat to Chicago in the NL Central, and signing a marquee starting pitcher could’ve put them in play to win the division. The Brewers still improved in the offseason by acquiring Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, making them a strong candidate to have a better record than they did in 2017.

Los Angeles Angels Over 84.5 Wins (-125/-105)

It’s hard to believe that the Angels have wasted so many MVP-caliber seasons by Mike Trout, making just one playoff appearance with no postseason wins in the last eight years. Maybe signing the offseason’s most-prized free agent in Shohei Ohtani, as well as third baseman Zack Cozart, will allow baseball's best player to compete during October.

Minnesota Twins Over 82.5 Wins (-180/+150)

The Twins easily had the best offseason of any team that didn’t give out any massive contracts. They added the likes of Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Logan Morrison and Addison Reed after winning last year’s second AL Wild-Card spot. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are only getting better at just 24 years old.

Colorado Rockies Under 82 Wins (-155/+125)

Colorado only has one starting pitcher that posted a sub.-4.00 ERA in 2017. That’s not exactly a formula to finish the season with a winning record. Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon will both have to put together consecutive MVP-caliber seasons in order for the Rockies to have a big year.

Seattle Mariners Over 81.5 Wins (-145/+115)

Seattle has a potentially dangerous lineup with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager hitting in the middle of the order. If they can get full seasons from Felix Hernandez and Mike Leake, the Mariners can be the second-best team in the AL West.

San Francisco Giants 81.5 Wins (-175/+145)

Trading for Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen isn’t going to get San Francisco into the postseason if they don’t have any reliable starting pitchers. Losing Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija over the first few weeks of the season is a big blow to the Giants, and it could put them in a hole that they won’t be able to get out of.

New York Mets Over 81 Wins (-160/+130)

New York’s success will be based on the health of their starting rotation. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom can both be Cy Young candidates, and Matt Harvey doesn’t have to be an ace if the rest of the Mets’ starters can stay off the disabled list. The team’s lineup can be good enough with Yoenis Cespedes and free-agent signings like Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce to keep them in the wild-card hunt.

Toronto Blue Jays Over 81 Wins (-130/EVEN)

Much like the Mets, the Blue Jays can surprise the rest of the league if their starting pitchers can stay on the field. Marcus Stroman is one of the AL’s best young pitchers, and Aaron Sanchez had a 3.00 ERA in 2016 when he pitched 200 innings. Josh Donaldson should be an MVP candidate in a lineup that was 10th in home runs last year.

Tampa Bay Rays Under 77.5 Wins (+195/-250)

The prospect of Tampa eventually trading Chris Archer or perhaps other players that could net them a valuable return makes the Rays an easy pick to finish under their projected win total. They won’t be able to compete with the top of the AL East, and winning 78 games with their Opening Day roster will already be a struggle.

Texas Rangers Under 77.5 Wins (+125/-155)

Texas won 78 games in 2017 when they finished third in homers and ninth in runs scored. The Rangers are likely to take a step back in both categories, and they don’t have the starting pitching to make up for it. Relying on veterans like Adrian Beltre and Cole Hamels, both of whom missed significant time with injuries last season, could be an issue.

Philadelphia Phillies Over 75.5 Wins (-260/+200)

If any team is going to become this year’s version of Arizona or Milwaukee and vastly improve to contend for a playoff spot, it might be Philadelphia. Signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana will certainly make the Phillies better, while Aaron Nola could emerge as a Cy Young candidate as he turns 25 years old. Philadelphia’s run differential suggested they had some bad luck to only win 66 games in 2017, so maybe they’ll be blessed with some good fortune in 2018.

Atlanta Braves Under 74.5 Wins (-155/+125)

There’s little reason to think the Braves will be four games better than they were a year ago. Atlanta has just one player in the lineup that hit at least 20 homers in 2017, and no one in the starting rotation had 20 starts with an ERA better than 4.00.

Oakland Athletics Under 74.5 Wins (-170/+140)

Moneyball sure seems like a long time ago. Oakland won just 75 games in 2017 after failing to reach the 70-win mark in each of the previous two seasons. Maybe the A’s will match last year’s total, but it could be a struggle since they have a rotation full of question marks and a lineup that doesn’t do much more than hit home runs.

Cincinnati Reds Under 73.5 Wins (-135/+105)

After making the playoffs in 2013, Cincinnati won 76 games in 2014 and hasn't hit the 70-win mark since. They didn’t improve much in the offseason. Take the under.

Pittsburgh Pirates Under 73 Wins (-125/-105)

Pittsburgh might finish the season with MLB’s worst record. After trading Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen in the offseason, the Pirates could sell off some more players if they have a rough first half. No team that has Francisco Cervelli as their highest-paid player is going to win many games.

Baltimore Orioles 73 Over Wins (-125/-105)

Baltimore has their pitching issues, but they can score a lot of runs. Assume the Orioles keep Manny Machado and they’ve got four or five hitters that realistically have a chance to put together All-Star seasons.

Kansas City Royals Under 71.5 Wins (+115/-145)

The immediate future isn’t exactly bright for Kansas City after losing their two best hitters and their All-Star starting pitcher. A knee injury that will keep Salvador Perez out for four to six weeks won’t help, and Mike Moustakas could come back to earth following a career year. A couple of years removed from consecutive World Series appearances, there’s a decent chance the Royals will finish in last place.

San Diego Padres Over 69.5 Wins (-215/+175)

As bad as San Diego has been in recent years, they’ve failed to record 70 wins just once since 2009. After signing Eric Hosmer to a $144 million contract and trading for Chase Headley, the Padres should be able to at least match last season’s win total of 71 victories.

Detroit Tigers Over 68.5 Wins (+105/-135)

With Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Nicholas Castellanos in the middle of the lineup, Detroit has a chance to have an offense that isn’t much worse than average. Maybe Jordan Zimmerman will have a bounce-back season and help Detroit avoid a 90-loss season.

Chicago White Sox Over 68 Wins (-250/+195)

It all depends on how Chicago’s young players perform. Yoan Moncada has the potential to become a superstar, and the White Sox can win 70-plus games if some of their prospects are ahead of schedule.

Miami Marlins Over 64.5 Wins (+110/-140)

Miami is sure to be awful in 2018, but that doesn’t mean they can’t win 65 games. The two worst teams had 64 victories a year ago, and no team has won fewer than 63 games since 2014.