It might take more than the final weekend of the 2021 MLB regular season to determine the American League wild-card race. The New York Yankees are on the verge of clinching a wild-card berth, but two, or even three teams, might end up tied for the second spot after 162 games.

The Yankees are firmly in control of their playoff destiny with a two-game lead atop the wild-card standings. The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are tied for the second wild-card berth. The Toronto Blue Jays are only a game back of the AL’s final postseason spot.

Every MLB team plays its final regular-season series before the playoffs Friday through Sunday.

New York is in command of the race after taking two of three games in Toronto. The Yankees hit four home runs off AL Cy Young favorite Robbie Ray for a 6-2 victory Thursday, putting some distance between themselves and the rest of the postseason contenders.

The Yankees swept the Red Sox at Fenway Park before going to Toronto, coming up big during the most important part of their schedule. New York finishes the season at home against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are locked in as the AL’s No. 1 seed with nothing on the line.

The Rays will host the AL wild-card winner in the ALDS. The Yankees can clinch the top wild-card spot by defeating the Rays twice.

Boston lost its second game against the Baltimore Orioles in three tries Thursday, blowing an opportunity to take sole possession of the second wild-card spot. The Red Sox should be favored in all three of their final games against the Washington Nationals, who are 29 games under .500.

Once considered a long shot to make the playoffs, the Mariners have won 10 of their last 11 games. Seattle is trying to become the only playoff team that has been outscored by their opponents this season.

Seattle ends the regular season at home against the Los Angeles Angels. The Angeles have a losing record and have been out of contention for some time.

Toronto hosts Baltimore in its last series. The Orioles have the AL’s worst record.

The Blue Jays are the only team in the wild-card hunt that don’t control their own destiny. Even if Toronto sweeps Baltimore, the Blue Jays would need the Red Sox and Mariners to each lose a game in order to finish tied with Boston and Seattle.

In a three-way tie, two of the teams would play each other Monday. The winner of that game would host the idle team Tuesday for a chance to visit New York in the AL Wild-Card Game on Wednesday.

Boston and Seattle can guarantee themselves at least a share of the second wild-card spot with a weekend sweep, regardless of what any other contender does.

The possibility of a four-way tie atop the wild-card standings does exist, though it’s an unlikely one. The Red Sox and Mariners would both have to finish the season 2-1. The Blue Jays would have to sweep the Orioles, and the Yankees would have to get swept by the Rays.

In that scenario, the four teams would be split into two matchups Monday. The winners of those games would face off in Tuesday’s AL Wild-Card Game.

A two-way tie for the second wild-card berth is very possible. That tiebreaker would come in the form of a 163rd game Monday with the winner visiting the first wild card team, likely the Yankees, Tuesday night.

The Yankees are considered near locks with a 96.7% chance to make the playoffs at FanGraphs. The Red Sox are second at 59.6%.

Yankees Giancarlo Stanton Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the New York Yankees reacts with Aaron Judge #99 after hitting a two run home run during the eighth inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox on September 26, 2021 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images
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