MLB Predictions: Why Carlos Rodon Will Pick The Yankees Over Giants, Cardinals, Twins

Carlos Rodon has been the most sought-after starting pitcher for much of MLB free agency. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer signed contracts early, leaving Rodon as the best option for teams looking to a make a significant upgrade in the rotation.

The New York Yankees have been pursuing Rodon even before they locked up Aaron Judge with a nine-year, $360 million contract. The San Francisco Giants are interested in re-signing Rodon. The Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals have also been linked to the left-hander.

Where will Rodon sign? Despite reports that the Yankees and Rodon are far part in contract talks, New York could still be the pitcher's most likely team.

The Yankees are believed to be Rodon's preferred destination. According to The New York Post's Jon Heyman, Rodon is seeking a seven-year contract worth at least $200 million, a figure that the Yankees don't seem willing to touch. The longer that Rodon remains available, the more unlikely it is that any team will meet his asking price.

The Cardinals are unlikely to pay Rodon the money that he is seeking, according to The Athletic's Katie Woo. St. Louis has never signed a player to a $200 million deal.

What about the Giants? San Francisco has already spent more money than anyone else this offseason, The Giants have committed to paying north of $463 million in contracts to Carlos Correa, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling. The additions of Manaea and Stripling could make up for the loss of Rodon, who was the team's best starter in 2022.

The Twins could make a big play for Rodon now that Correa is off the books. The idea of Minnesota outbidding New York for a top free agent, however, seems unlikely.

There could be a mystery team that decides to insert itself into the Rodon Sweepstakes. The Baltimore Orioles were linked to Rodon before he became such an expensive option. Maybe Baltimore will decide to do what it takes to sign Rodon in hopes that it will result in a playoff push.

The odds of a small-market team shelling out $200 million for a 30-year-old pitcher with a history of injuries might not be very high. Even if it's not close to $200 million, the Yankees can make Rodon an appealing offer.

It was speculated early in the offseason that a five-year, $150 million contract could get the job done. Adding another year at a lower annual value might end up being the best offer Rodon receives.

Prediction: Rodon to the Yankees for six years, $168 million