MLB Rumors: Zack Wheeler To Reject Mets' Offer, Test Free Agent Market

The New York Mets may have to start thinking about life after Zack Wheeler. Despite the availability of both Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, unless one of the two wants to settle for $17.8 million in salary next season, on the free agent market, there are plenty of teams that want starting pitching.

Wheeler has a few other things going for him this winter. First, he has stayed healthy for two consecutive seasons now after returning from Tommy John surgery. Second, Wheeler turns 30 in May, so he has a few good seasons left in his arm.

Third, his analytical numbers are good enough that most front offices will think they can improve the pitcher. Finally, he is one of the "best of the rest" of this winter’s class of free agent pitchers. In other words, outside of Cole and Strasburg, Wheeler is just about the best free agent pitcher on the market.

The Mets did tender a qualifying offer before last Monday’s deadline of $17.8 million for next season. However, recent comparable pitchers have done very well for themselves in free agency, so the team isn’t holding its breath for Wheeler to sign the qualifying offer.

Nathan Eovaldi got a four-year $68 million contract last season from the Red Sox. He didn’t have a qualifying offer attached to his name like Wheeler does, but he also wasn’t as effective as the Mets starter has been in recent seasons.

Then there is the example of Patrick Corbin who got a six-year $140 million pay day from the Nationals. Corbin is a lefty and came off of a better season than Wheeler is currently but their health, age and analytical numbers aren’t too far off from each other.

So, it seems that Zack Wheeler would probably do much better in free agency than with the Mets’ qualifying offer. While the team could, of course, extend an improved offer to the player should he reject the $17.8 million terms presented last week, they likely won’t.

With Jacob DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz all under contract for 2020, the Mets already have their top four rotation spots sorted out. This means that they could easily opt for a cheaper fifth starter than Wheeler.

Free agent options include veteran Rick Porcello or Michael Pineda, who have less upside than Wheeler and would command lesser salaries. Alternatively, New York could extend offers to innings-eater type starters like Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark.

Finally, the Mets could choose to promote from within with both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo sitting in their bullpen. Should the team go this route, they would need to then fill another gap in an already thin reliever corps.

Wheeler may not yet be a free agent, but other clubs are already taking an interest in him. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros and San Diego Padres are all monitoring Zack Wheeler.