Is Montana A Swing State? New Poll Shows Democratic Candidates Biden, Bullock Making Headway

A new poll released by Montana State University on Tuesday shows Democratic 2020 candidates Joe Biden and Steve Bullock making headway in major races in Montana.

The survey shows President Trump at 45.3% support among Montanans, compared to Biden at 39.7%. Montana has traditionally been a GOP stronghold, with Trump winning the state in 2016 at 56.2%.

Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock and incumbent GOP Sen. Steve Daines are in a close race in the state’s U.S. Senate contest according to the poll, with Bullock at 46% support to Daines’ 39%. The survey of 738 Montanans has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6%.

“I think it’s certainly reasonable to assume that the race is probably within the margin of error and too close to call,” David Parker, the chair of the MSU political science department told the Montana-based MTN News. “So, while we show a lead [for Bullock], it’s within the margin of error, so I would say, yeah, this is a competitive Senate race.”

The poll also said 70% of Montanans approve of Bullock’s coronavirus response as governor. On Monday, restaurants, bars, pubs and casinos began reopening in the state at limited capacity.

“I’d like to reiterate how important it is that Montanans continue to go to great lengths to protect themselves and one another in these coming weeks,” Bullock said in a news conference on Friday.

Democrats have historically done poorly in Montana but there are signs over the past 12 years of the state leaning a bit more left. In 2008, John McCain earned a slim victory over Barack Obama, 49.49% to 47.11%. Montana has also elected a Democrat in the last four gubernatorial races and Democrat Jon Tester is serving his third term in the U.S. Senate.

A Morning Consult poll in November showed Trump with a minus-1 net-approval rating.

However, Republicans have won Montana in the past six presidential elections. In a Morning Consult poll in February, Trump had a plus-6 net-approval rating.