NASA Mars Mission Update: Why 2033 Is Not A Realistic Launch Window

NASA may not be able to send humans to Mars by 2033, according to an independent report.

The Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI), at NASA's direction, prepared an assessment report as to whether or not the U.S. space agency's plans for a manned spaceflight to Mars scheduled for 2033 is feasible. And STPI concluded that NASA wouldn't have enough budget and time to send people to Mars even 14 years from now.

According to the report, NASA's other upcoming projects and missions, especially the agency's plan to send another manned spacecraft back to the Moon, makes the schedule for the Mars mission unrealistic. On top of their ongoing missions, NASA still has to design and work on landers that could support a crew of astronauts' journey to the Earth's satellite while planning the Mars mission.

“We find that even without budget constraints, a Mars 2033 orbital mission cannot be realistically scheduled under NASA’s current and notional plans,” STPI stated in the report. “Our analysis suggests that a Mars orbital mission could be carried out no earlier than the 2037 orbital window without accepting large technology development, schedule delay, cost overrun, and budget shortfall risks.”

STPI pointed out, in particular, the long lead times required by the technology risks that come with the Deep Space Transport, including life support systems and propulsion. The most important technologies would need to be tested as early as 2022 in order for a 2033 Mars mission launch to be possible, but it is unlikely that NASA would be able to start the testing phase in three years.

If NASA does move forward with the project without making sure the technologies are completed, then this would “dramatically increase technology and schedule risks for the DST and could force the DST design to be revised if any one of these technology testing programs reveals problems.”

The report also deemed the other possible launch schedule, 2035, infeasible due to technological and financial concerns.

The report was prepared in accordance to the bill passed by Congress called 2017 NASA authorization act, which required a technical and financial assessment of “a Mars human space flight mission to be launched in 2033.” It was completed even before Vice President Mike Pence called for NASA to bring humans back to the lunar surface.

But NASA isn't the only one aiming to land people on the Red Planet. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has made it his mission to colonize Mars and revealed during a "Recode Decode" podcast interview in October 2018 that his company is planning to launch a manned spacecraft by 2024.