National Debt May Rise Under Harris, But Could Surge Under Trump: Study

The national debt of the United States is projected to balloon significantly over the next decade, regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump occupies the White House, a report by the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget revealed Monday.

Based on the report, under a low-cost estimate, proposals by Democratic presidential candidate Harris would be roughly deficit-neutral, while Trump's plan would add about $1.45 trillion to the debt between 2026 and 2035.

Under central estimates, Vice President Harris' plan would increase the debt by $3.50 trillion through 2035, while former President Trump's proposals would increase the debt by $7.50 trillion.

Under the high-cost estimate, the proposals of Harris and Trump could increase the debt by $8.10 trillion and $15.15 trillion, respectively.

"We're already spending more on interest than on Medicare and defense, and this high debt really kind of crowds out everything else," Marc Goldwein, the committee's senior policy director, told CNN. "It crowds out investment in the private sector, so we have less economic growth. It crowds out spending in the public sector, so we have less room to pay for our other priorities."

Harris' plans incorporate provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for individuals earning less than $400,000 annually. Harris has proposed to significantly expand the Child Tax Credit and other individual tax credits, increase support for housing and health care, lower taxes on tips, and strengthen border security.

She has also called for spending and tax breaks for domestic research and manufacturing, and small businesses. However, the law's individual income and estate tax provisions are set to expire by the end of 2025.

To help pay for her plan, Vice President Harris has proposed raising taxes on big corporations and wealthy households, along with lowering prescription drug prices. Her campaign also says she backs the tax increases on corporations and the wealthy in President Biden's 2025 budget.

In contrast, Trump has advocated for extending all provisions of the 2017 tax cuts, which was a key achievement during his presidency. He would further increase the price tag with additional measures, such as eliminating the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions and restoring businesses' ability to immediately deduct investments in equipment and research.

He proposed to end taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits and reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% for domestic manufacturers.

Trump has stated his plan to introduce new tariffs amounting to 10% or 20% on every foreign import in addition to 60% plus tariff on all Chinese imports, and that he expects these new tariffs to cover the expenses of his proposals. It is estimated that the new tariffs will generate between $2 trillion and $4.3 trillion over the next decade, but this is not enough to offset the cost of his proposals.

Currently, the total federal debt held by the public is $28 billion and is expected to rise, the Associated Press reported.

The analysis also warns: "Debt would continue to grow faster than the economy under either candidates' plans and in most scenarios would grow faster and higher than under current law."

Multiple analyses indicate Harris as being more fiscally responsible than Trump, though neither candidate has spoken about budget deficit reduction.

"Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis," the report said.

The report is based on official campaign announcements, white papers, social media posts, speeches, discussions with campaign staff, proposals of presidential candidates and other sources.