NBA Finals 2018: Prediction, Preview For Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Part IV

As much as the 2018 NBA Finals feels like more of the same with a fourth straight meeting between the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, this year’s matchup is very different from the three previous iterations. LeBron James found himself as the clear underdog in each meeting from 2015-2017, but the Cavs always had a conceivable path to victory, even in last season’s five-game loss. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Cleveland could pull off an upset this time around.

This isn’t Warriors-Cavaliers I when Golden State had no championship experience. It’s not 2016 when, despite facing the best regular-season team of all time, Cleveland had two of the series’ four best players. Even last year after the Warriors added Kevin Durant and went undefeated in the Western Conference playoffs, the Cavs still had three All-Stars and nearly won both Game 3 and Game 4 at home.

The majority of the star power in Warriors-Cavaliers IV comes from Golden State. Durant and Stephen Curry are two of the three best players in the league. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are both All-Stars in the prime of their careers. Golden State has four of the five best players in the series.

Cleveland still has the No.1 star. James remains the best basketball player on the planet, and the first three rounds of the playoffs might’ve shown that the gap between himself and the rest of the league is greater than we thought.

But that’s where any advantage that the Cavs have ends.

Kevin Love made the 2018 All-Star team, though that feels like a lifetime ago because of the way he’s played this postseason. He’s averaging 13.9 points on 38.8 percent shooting in 17 playoff games, failing to score more than 15 points 10 times. Love left Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals with a concussion, and his status for the NBA Finals series opener is unknown.

The Cavs had an established 1-2-3 in their previous Finals appearances with James, Irving and Love. Ask someone who Cleveland’s third-best player is this season and you could get one of a few answers—and that’s not a good thing.

On some nights it’s George Hill, who failed to post more than seven points or three assists in four games against Boston as the starting point guard. For much of the playoffs, it’s looked like Kyle Korver, a 37-year-old spot-up shooter that can be a liability on defense. Tristan Thompson had one productive series and was essentially useless against the Warriors a year ago. J.R. Smith and Jeff Green seem to play well about once every three nights.

All of that adds up to Cleveland being the biggest underdogs in the NBA Finals in the last 16 years. Golden State opened as a 10/1 favorite to successfully defend their title. The Warriors are 12-point Game 1 favorites, matching the Los Angeles Lakers, who were 12-point favorites against the Philadelphia 76ers in the opener of the 2001 NBA Finals.

Philadelphia actually went on to win Game 1 of that series in overtime behind 48 points from Allen Iverson. Is there any chance that Cleveland could steal a game on the road and put some pressure on Golden State?

The Western Conference Finals proved that Golden State isn’t exactly invincible. The champs needed seven games to defeat the Houston Rockets, and their season might have ended if Chris Paul didn’t go down for the series with a hamstring injury late in Game 5. The Warriors crumbled in two fourth quarters, looking out of sorts at times on offense.

If anyone can exploit a team that’s having trouble scoring, it’s this version of LeBron James. He’s been an absolute machine in the playoffs, averaging 34.0 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game. James is shooting 54.2 percent from the field, and he’s had seven games of more than 40 points on better than 50 percent shooting.

Sure, some of those performances came against the No.5 seed Indiana Pacers and the mentally fragile Toronto Raptors. James also had historic games against Boston’s No.1 ranked defense. He averaged a triple-double in the 2017 NBA Finals while scoring 33.6 points per game on 56.4 percent shooting.

Golden State lost a game to the Kawhi Leonard-less San Antonio Spurs in the first round. The New Orleans Pelicans blew out the Warriors in Game 3 of the conference semifinals. James should be able to do enough for the Cavs to win a game at Quicken Loans Arena.

It’s hard to see Cleveland getting more than that, given the talent disparity of the two teams.

The Warriors have simply looked flat at times, whether it was during the regular season or when they had a series lead during this postseason. Golden State responded to their loss against New Orleans by outscoring the Pelicans by 35 points over the next two games. With their season on the verge of ending, the Warriors were 38 points better than Houston in Game 6 and Game 7.

The Rockets had the personnel to play the Warriors tough, switching on pick and rolls with defenders that were capable of at least challenging Golden State’s superstar scorers. It’s part of the reason why Curry and Durant struggled in the fourth quarters of Game 4 and Game 5.

Cleveland doesn’t have Trevor Ariza or P.J. Tucker to throw at Golden State. The likes of Love and Korver will be exposed on the defensive end, much like the Warriors went at Ryan Anderson when Houston was forced to play him in Game 7. Golden State averaged 121.6 points per game in last year’s Finals, never scoring fewer than 113 points in a game. Cleveland’s defense is significantly worse in 2018.

For all the talk about James Harden’s efficiency on offense and Houston’s success with isolation basketball, it was their defense that gave them a shot, allowing 97 points per game in their three victories. The same was the case for Cleveland in the 2016 NBA Finals when they surrendered 94.3 points per game in their four wins over Golden State.

James cannot defend at a high level for most of the game because of the load he’s asked to carry on offense. He wore down in the fourth quarters of last year’s Finals when he rested just over five minutes per game. The three-time NBA Finals MVP will carry an even bigger responsibility in the upcoming meeting.

The Cavs were unable to stop a 20-year-old Jayson Tatum in the conference finals. Don’t expect them to have any answers for Durant or Curry. Thompson should put on a few unstoppable shooting displays, as well.

James has carried Cleveland as far as he possibly could. He’s the only player in the league that could have gotten this roster back to the NBA Finals.

No one, not even James, is likely capable of bringing them a championship.

NBA Finals Prediction: Golden State in five