NBA Finals 2019 Prediction: Warriors Will Beat Raptors, Kawhi Leonard Keeps Toronto Competitive

The Golden State Warriors can’t be considered anything less than a dynasty as they try to win their fourth title in five years. The back-to-back defending champions are favored over the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 NBA Finals, just as they were in each of their previous trips.

While Golden State is still recognized as the league’s best team, this year feels a little different than their other postseason runs. The Warriors have never seemed more vulnerable at the start of the finals, even though this is the first time they won’t have to deal with the second greatest basketball player in history.

There were the first two seasons when the Warriors averaged 70 regular-season wins a year and Stephen Curry won consecutive MVP awards, but the team faced competitive series with a six-game win in 2015 and seven-game defeat in 2016 when they infamously blew a 3-1 series lead. Then, Kevin Durant signed with the Warriors and made them virtually unbeatable, powering Golden State to an 8-1 finals record with two NBA Finals MVP awards.

Against the Raptors, the Warriors are in the third and possibly final phase of their historic run. Golden State almost finds itself somewhere in between 2016 and 2017. Durant is on the roster and the Warriors are expected to win another title, but the superstar’s health looms large over the series and presents a possible opening for Toronto to steal their first-ever championship.

Say what you want about the Warriors’ 5-0 record since Durant strained his calf and the way Golden State hasn’t missed a beat without their leading scorer: The Warriors wouldn’t lose four times in seven games to the Raptors with a completely healthy Durant. Golden State would arguably have the best player in the series in that case, and they would most certainly have four of the five top players in the finals.

Durant’s unknown status, however, makes things interesting. Kawhi Leonard has proven to be the best player that will play in Game 1. Durant seems unlikely to suit up before Game 3, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he doesn’t return at all.

The team with the best player always has a chance to win the series, especially when he's performing on a level that few in history have ever reached.

Leonard has been drawing comparisons to Michael Jordan for leading the Raptors through the Eastern Conference and past the 60-win Milwaukee Bucks. His playoff averages—31.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 50.7 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from three—are some of the best ever. Leonard has put up those numbers while playing awesome defense, which included stifling likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Leonard remained an elite offensive player against Milwaukee’s No.1 ranked defense. He’ll find a way to score and create open shots for teammates against the defending champs. At the very least, Leonard and home-court advantage should make this a competitive series.

Does that mean Toronto can win the title?

There’s certainly a world in which the Raptors win this series. If the team that beat the Bucks in four straight games shows up in the finals, we could have new NBA champions.

Leonard is playing at such a high level that it wouldn’t be smart to bet against him having another fantastic series. Toronto’s defense, which made Milwaukee's half-court offense look like a G-League team, can find more success against Golden State than anyone this postseason has found.

Marc Gasol and Leonard have both won Defensive Player of the Year awards. Kyle Lowry and Danny Green give the Raptors a terrific defensive backcourt. Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam are plus defenders. The way Toronto swarmed Milwaukee and managed to still challenge shooters should give them some level of confidence going forward.

Those same players, other than Leonard, aren’t nearly as likely to replicate their best offensive games on a consistent basis. The Raptors probably don’t have what it takes to keep pace with the Warriors’ offense for the length of a long series, and it’s why they will likely come up short.

Kyle Lowry was great against the Bucks, and there’s a chance he’ll continue to hit big shots in the finals. What about Gasol, who was too passive in the first two games and scored six points or fewer four times last round? Ibaka has mostly shot poorly. Siakam is hot and cold.

Then, there’s Fred VanVleet. The backup guard was the X-factor in the conference finals with 14 three-pointers made on 17 attempts over the final three games. The odds of him continuing that kind of production against the Warriors are astronomical.

Toronto was a heavy underdog last round in part because the Raptors’ supporting cast was so underwhelming in the conference semifinals. Leonard had to beat the Philadelphia 76ers by himself, shooting 39 shots in Game 7.

Leonard can’t beat Golden State alone. He might have to try for a few games too many.

Even without Durant, Curry doesn’t share that same burden. If Curry is being double-teamed, it just means Klay Thompson has a better chance of launching a clean look from three. The Splash Brothers have stepped up in Durant’s absence, and that’s not going to stop in the most important series of the year.

Curry scored at least 36 points in every conference finals game. He averaged 27.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game in last year’s finals. The point guard nearly averaged a triple-double in the 2017 finals with averages of 26.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 9.4 assists.

The Raptors will get the best that the greatest shooter ever has to offer.

Draymond Green might be playing the best basketball of his career. He’s making opposing defenses pay when they sag off him by expertly facilitating the offense and running devastating pick-and-rolls. He also gives the Warriors another elite defender that can challenge Leonard.

Andre Iguodala is still better than most of the Raptors that will get significant playing time. Kevon Looney has made himself a lot of money this postseason by averaging a double-double per 36 minutes. It sounds like DeMarcus Cousins could be an option off the bench for the entire season.

Plus, the Warriors might have the reigning NBA Finals MVP ready to return in case things don’t go their way.

When the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Warriors in 2016, LeBron James had a historic series and Kyrie Irving performed like a star. Leonard could do his best to match James’ impact, but he doesn’t have his version of Irving to put the Raptors over the top.

Toronto will give Golden State a fight. It just won’t be enough

Series Prediction: Warriors in six