NBA MVP Race 2018: Top 5 Candidates Ranked, From Harden To Durant

The NBA might be filled with more great players than at any point in the league’s history, and there is no greater indicator of that fact than the 2017-2018 MVP race. Several superstars entered the All-Star break with historic numbers, making for what should be an interesting final two months of the regular season.

Let’s take a look at the top five MVP candidates as the second half of the season is set to begin.

1) James Harden (31.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 9.0 APG)

After finishing second in the voting in two of the last three years, this is clearly Harden’s award to lose. He’s the best player on what’s been the best team—the Houston Rockets are a half-game ahead of the Golden State Warriors in the standings—leading the most efficient offense in league history.

Harden leads the NBA in scoring, PER, BPM and threes made while ranking second in assists. The guard still gets to the free throw line more than anyone, and he’s averaging better than 1.5 points per field-goal attempt. His defense has improved, averaging 35.8 minutes per game for a team that’s in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.

The pairing of Harden and Chris Paul has worked better than anyone could have anticipated. Houston is just 4-3 when Harden doesn’t play and an incredible 29-3 when the starting backcourt suits up together. Maybe the Rockets aren’t good enough to beat a healthy Warriors’ team in a seven-game series, but they are on a path to the Western Conference Finals, ready to give the defending champs all they can handle.

2) Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 4.8 APG)

No player is more essential to his team’s success than Antetokounmpo. He does it all for the Milwaukee Bucks, leading them in points, rebounds and assists. He’s four blocks away from sharing the team lead and his 1.42 steals per game are good for second, as well. The Bucks have outscored their opponents by 5.0 points per 100 possessions with Antetokounmpo on the court. They’ve been outscored by 11.4 points per 100 possessions with the Greek Freak on the bench.

The Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics are ahead of Cleveland in the standings, but Milwaukee might have the best chance of upsetting the Cavaliers in the playoffs because they’ve got the conference’s second-best player. Now that Jason Kidd is no longer the head coach and the Bucks are rolling, they’ve got a good chance to enter the postseason as a top-four seed.

Antetokounmpo doesn’t have the same impact on offense as Harden because of his three-point shooting, making just 29 percent of the 1.8 threes he attempts per game. If the 23-year-old can turn that percentage into a respectable number next season, he should be the MVP favorite.

3) LeBron James (26.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 8.9 APG)

What a roller coaster first half of the season it was for James. Through the season’s first two months, he was arguably the MVP frontrunner, putting up some of the most impressive numbers of his career. Then, the wheels came off when the Cleveland Cavaliers lost 14 of 21 games and looked like they couldn’t compete with any of the league’s top teams.

Through the ups and downs, James still has better stats than almost anyone. He’s fifth in scoring, fourth in PER and third in assists. While shooting better than 54 percent from the field, James is putting together just the 10th 26-8-8 season in league history. He’s playing without a third All-Star caliber player for the first time in eight years, dragging an old roster to the East’s No.3 seed.

It’s hard to put James higher than third in the MVP race because of Cleveland’s struggles from Christmas to the trade deadline, for which he deserves some blame. His defense has been lackluster for much of the year, and the Cavs might have been destined for an early playoff exit had they not made several deals a week before the break. But James remains the best basketball player on the planet, and he’s probably the only one with a real chance to prevent Harden from taking home the award.

4) Stephen Curry (26.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 6.5 APG)

The two-time MVP winner might be the favorite to win a third award if he didn’t miss significant time with an ankle injury. He’s playing better than he did when he was named the 2015 MVP, scoring more points on nearly the same amount of shots. He’s first in true shooting percentage among anyone that plays at least 15 minutes per game.

Maybe Kevin Durant is the better overall player, but Curry might be more important for the Warriors and the way they play. That’s why Golden State’s suffered much more with Curry on the bench compared to when Durant has sat. The Warriors have a plus-8.8 net rating when Curry’s on the court and a plus-0.5 rating when Durant plays.

Curry simply doesn’t crack the top-three because he’s missed 13 of 58 games. Even if he’s somehow better in the final two months of the season, he’ll likely split too many votes with Durant to come close to winning the award.

5) Kevin Durant (26.0, 6.8 RPG, 5.5 APG)

In plenty of other seasons, Durant would have a better chance to win the MVP award. Only LeBron James, Michael Jordan and Larry Bird have put together 26-7-5 seasons while shooting at least 52 percent from the field. He’s shooting 42 percent from three-point range and his 59.5 effective field-goal percentage is a career-high.

Curry has been the better offensive player, so it’s Durant’s prowess on the other end of the court that makes him a real MVP candidate. He’s in the conversation to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, becoming one of the NBA’s best rim protectors.

Durant is still the second-best player in the league, and he’s the best player on the team that’s favored to win the 2018 NBA Finals. His role on a team with three other All-Stars, however, makes it difficult for him to put up numbers similar to other top candidates.