NBA MVP Race: Odds, Prediction, Long-Shot Bets For 2022-2023 Award
The list of realistic candidates in the NBA MVP race at the start of the 2022-23 season is a long one. Eight players have +1500 odds or better, including a handful of recent winners.
Luka Doncic is the preseason MVP favorite for the third season in a row. The Dallas Mavericks star leads the way with +500 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Doncic has been a top-six vote-getter in three straight seasons but has yet to crack the top three.
Joel Embiid has +600 odds for MVP, putting him second behind Doncic. The Philadelphia 76ers center has been the MVP runner-up in two straight seasons. Embiid won last season's scoring title.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is third in the race with +700 odds. The Milwaukee Bucks star won the award in 2019 and 2020. Antetokounmpo has been a top-four MVP finisher in each of the last four years.
Nikola Jokic and Kevin Durant both have +1000 MVP odds. The Denver Nuggets star is trying to become the first player since Larry Bird in 1986 to win his third straight MVP award. Durant won the 2014 MVP award and was a top candidate last season before a knee injury derailed his campaign.
Here's a look at the best bets and a prediction for the 2023 NBA MVP award with odds from FanDuel.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+700)
Antetokounmpo has just as good of a chance as Doncic and Embiid to win the award, even though both players are given better odds. Jokic could put up better stats than Antetokounmpo, but the center might need an otherworldly season in order for voters to give him the award for a third straight season.
By following up his 2019 and 2020 MVP seasons with the 2021 Finals MVP award, Antetokounmpo established himself as the best basketball player in the world. In each of the last four seasons, Antetokounmpo has averaged at least 27.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. Barring a serious injury, the 27-year-old is virtually guaranteed to be a top-five MVP candidate.
Kawhi Leonard (+2700)
Leonard's injury history makes him somewhat of a long shot to win the MVP award. The forward missed all of last season with a torn ACL and last played more than 60 games in the 2016-17 season. There is a good chance, however, that Leonard will play enough games to be seriously considered as an MVP candidate. Rest has become so common among the league's top stars that players can miss a significant amount of time and still contend for the award.
The players who finished second through fifth in last year's MVP voting all missed at least 14 games. Leonard only missed 15 games in the 2019-2020 season before sitting out 20 games the following year. Before getting hurt in the 2021 playoffs, Leonard averaged 30.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.1 steals in 11 games while shooting 57.3% from the field.
Anthony Edwards (+6000)
Veterans like Damian Lillard (+5500), Jimmy Butler (+6000) and Paul George (+6500) have similar odds to Edwards and are almost certainly not going to win their first MVP in their early 30s. Even Karl-Anthony Towns (+6000) is in his eighth season. If a true long shot is going to win the MVP award, it's likely going to be a young player who takes a leap into superstardom. As the No.1 overall pick in the draft two years ago, Edwards fits the bill.
Edwards clearly possesses the tools of a future MVP candidate. In his second season, the guard averaged 21.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 steals per game. Edwards shot 45.9% from the field and 36.4% from three-point range after the All-Star Break. The addition of Rudy Gobert could turn the Minnesota Timberwolves into one of the West's top regular-season teams. That would at least put the team's best player in the MVP conversation.
MVP Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo
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