Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Betting Odds: Chances Of Congress Approving Supreme Court Nominee

It’s been over two months since President Donald Trump announced his pick for the Supreme Court, Judge Neil M. Gorsuch. It’s also been over two months without a Senate confirmation vote—one that has been clouded by heightened uncertainty.

Gorsuch needs 60 votes from the Senate to be confirmed and with most Democrats having already announced that they won’t be voting for Gorsuch, a confirmation appears to be in serious jeopardy. In response, Republicans, who have 52 members in the Senate, have considered triggering the nuclear option. That means they’d have to change the rules so that Gorsuch would only need a simple majority (51 votes) to be confirmed.

Read: What Is The Nuclear Option To Confirm Supreme Court Justice Gorsuch?

Democrats have been down this road before. In 2006, an attempt to filibuster Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito was soundly defeated with the judge appointed by George W. Bush receiving a 58-42 vote.

But legal scholars have expressed concern about Gorsuch's nomination due to his controversial originalist interpretation of the constitution. In March, Erwin Chemerinsky, who serves as dean and Raymond Pryke Professor of First Amendment Law at the University of California’s Irvine School of Law, wrote that "the original understanding of the Constitution is unknowable, and even if it could be known, should not be binding today."

"To defend and protect the Constitution, we need justices on the court today like [William] Brennan and Stephen G. Breyer, who believes 'the court should regard the Constitution as containing unwavering values that must be applied flexibly to ever-changing circumstances,'" wrote Stephen F. Rohde, a former president of the ACLU of Southern California, in a letter to the Los Angeles Times.

With all of these moving parts, what are the odds Gorsuch will be confirmed? One way to look at it might be from the lens of the world of sports betting.

Don Aguero of the website Sports Betting Dime writes a lot about soccer betting odds but sometimes delves into the political world, as well. He has produced betting odds for Gorsuch twice.

Read: What Happens Next With Unions? How Supreme Court Nominee Neil Gorsuch Could Change Labor

The first time around — which was Feb. 1, a day after Trump announced Gorsuch’s nomination — Aguero predicted the over/under on the date of Gorsuch’s appointment to the Supreme Court to be March 15. That, of course, did not happen. So Aguero tried again March 22.

Here's a look back at Sports Betting Dime's odds on Gorsuch.

Sports Betting Dime (Feb. 1)

Odds of Gorsuch being confirmed: 3/17

Odds that Democrats filibuster the confirmation hearing: 1/9

Odds Republicans use the nuclear options: 1/1

Odds that, if Neil Gorsuch is nominated, he votes against Trump’s interests: 3/2

Over/under on when the next Supreme Court judge will be appointed: March 15, 2017

Sports Betting Dime (March 22)

Odds Gorsuch being confirmed: 3/17

Odds 60 or more senators vote to confirm Gorsuch: 1/1

Odds that Democrats filibuster the confirmation hearing: 2/3

Odds Republicans use the nuclear option: 7/3