Netflix Stock Plunges 12% On US Membership Cancellations, Subscriber Estimates Miss

Netflix Inc. could have written a better script. The leader in streaming media saw its stock plunge almost 12 percent in afterhours trading Wednesday after revealing a sharp slump in net subscribers in the United States and elsewhere.

Netflix’s earnings report for its second quarter showed disappointing global net adds of 2.7 million subscribers, a 46 percent plunge from the previous guidance of 5 million. It also showed the loss of more than 120,000 U.S. subscribers versus an expected gain of 300,000 subscribers.

In its letter to shareholders, Netflix blamed the massive subscriber miss on a trio of factors: price increases, a weak Q2 content line-up, and its unexpectedly strong Q1 subscriber uptake.

The Q1 subscriber growth was so strong “there may have been more pull-forward effect than we realized,” said Netflix. The company also said the missed forecast was most pronounced in regions that saw price increases.

Other key subscription metrics: domestic paid subscriber additions revealed a loss of 126,000 subscribers against a gain of 352,000, as forecast by FactSet. International paid subscriber additions came in at 2.83 million subscribers vs. a forecast of 4.81 million.

Key financial indicators show earnings per share at 60 cents vs. 56 cents expected by Refinitiv’s consensus estimate. Q1 revenue stood at $4.92 billion compared to the $4.93 billion expected.

Wall Street didn’t take kindly to the sharp subscriber miss. Netflix’s stock plummeted 12 percent to $319.07 in afterhours trading after opening at $366.25 and reaching an intraday high of $366.50.

On the upside, Netflix sees a stronger third quarter. It forecasts 7 million global paid net adds for Q3 and provided revenue guidance of $5.25 billion. The company expects its strong Q3 content slate to boost subscriber numbers.

Q3 shows include “Stranger Things,” which saw heavy viewership of the third season, the final season of “Orange is the New Black” and a new season of “The Crown.” Netflix, however, will take a hit from the loss of two of its most popular shows: “The Office” and “Friends.” Netflix spent $80 million to keep "Friends" through the end of this year.

Netflix brushed aside the threat of tougher competition from new streaming services in the coming season.

“We don’t believe competition was a factor since there wasn’t a material change in the competitive landscape during Q2, and competitive intensity and our penetration varied across regions (while our over-forecast was in every region).”

Netflix asserts its advertising-free model gives it an edge over several of the newer streaming entrants. That boast might not ring true in the coming years since it’s now almost certain Netflix will indeed have paid ads on its shows.