New England Patriots Playoff Chances: Wild-Card, Division Scenarios After Cardinals' Game

The New England Patriots are outside of the 2022 NFL playoff picture heading into Monday night's game against the Arizona Cardinals. That would change with a victory to conclude the Week 14 schedule.

With a 6-6 record, the Patriots enter the Cardinals' game as the No. 9 seed in the AFC. If New England wins, it will move up to the No. 7 seed in the conference, giving the Patriots the final wild-card spot in the AFC playoff picture. If the Patriots lose to the Cardinals, New England remains the No. 9 seed and falls one game out of the playoff race.

The Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets are both 7-6 and in contention for the final wild-card spot. The Chargers own the current tiebreaker with the Jets because of a better conference record. Because New England has a better conference record than Los Angeles, the Patriots would replace the Chargers in the playoff standings with a Week 14 victory.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Patriots' playoff chances would improve to 39% with a win in Arizona. If the Cardinals win, the Patriots' playoff chances drop to 18% for the final month of the season.

The Patriots are virtually out of contention in the AFC East. Even if New England wins, the Buffalo Bills will have a three-game edge on the Patriots with four games to play. A Patriots' loss Monday would keep New England in last place.

A difficult schedule might ultimately keep the Patriots out of the final playoff picture. After visiting the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 15, New England will take on three teams that currently have a postseason berth.

In Week 16, the Patriots are scheduled to host the No. 4 seed Cincinnati Bengals, which are 7-1 in their last eight games. New England finishes the season with matchups against the Miami Dolphins and Bills, both of which have already beaten the Patriots by double digits.

The Dolphins are the No. 6 seed and only a game up on the Jets, the first team out of the AFC playoffs. The Bills might need a win in Week 18 to clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

The Bills finished one game ahead of the Patriots to win last year's AFC East title and eliminated New England from the playoffs on Wild-Card Weekend.