New England Patriots Playoff Scenarios: No.1 Seed, Bye, Wild-Card Game All Possible In Week 17

The New England Patriots usually have a first-round bye secured in Week 17. That’s not the case in the 2018 NFL season, and they face a bunch of different scenarios in their final game of the year.

It all depends on what happens Sunday across the AFC. New England still has a chance to clinch home-field advantage until the Super Bowl. The Patriots are in the driver’s seat for a bye in the first round of the playoffs, but there’s a chance they’ll be playing on Wild-Card Weekend as the No.4 seed.

After Week 16, the Kansas City Chiefs have a one-game lead over the Patriots atop the AFC standings. New England and the Houston Texans share a 10-5 record, but the Patriots have the tiebreaker and the No.2 seed. The Baltimore Ravens are a game behind both teams as the No.4 seed and still chasing a bye.

There’s only one scenario in which the Patriots can get the No.1 seed. New England needs to beat the New York Jets at home and Kansas City needs to lose to the Oakland Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium. The Patriots also need the Denver Broncos to beat the Los Angeles Chargers, who have the same record as the Chiefs and are still fighting for the AFC West title.

New England owns the tiebreaker over Kansas City because they beat the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium 43-40 in Week 6.

A win for the Patriots guarantees them a first-round bye. New England has the tiebreaker over Houston because they defeated the Texans 27-20 in the season opener.

The Texans can jump the Patriots for the No.2 seed if they win in Week 17 and New England gets upset by New York. Houston is scheduled to host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon.

Either the Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans will almost certainly win the AFC South if the Texans lose. The Titans will host the Colts Sunday night. Both teams are a game behind Houston in the division, and the Texans would lose the tiebreaker for first place if they are defeated by the Jaguars.

The Patriots own the tiebreaker over the Colts and Titans, as well.

If Baltimore wins and New England loses, the Ravens will have the better conference record, giving them the tiebreaker over the Patriots. A win for Houston in that scenario would drop New England down to the conference’s No.4 seed and force the Patriots to play on Wild-Card Weekend.

New England hasn’t played in the first round of the playoffs since the 2009 season. The Patriots lost that wild-card matchup to the Ravens.

The Patriots are looking for their eighth straight appearance in the AFC Championship Game. New England has never reached the Super Bowl with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick without having a bye.