New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 2018: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview For NFL Week 2

The Jacksonville Jaguars almost shocked the world and beat the New England Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game before coming up just short of reaching Super Bowl LII. The defending AFC South champions blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead, ultimately falling victim to yet another comeback by Tom Brady.

Was Jacksonville’s near upset a fluke or can they beat New England if given another chance?

We’ll learn the answer to that question Sunday afternoon in the biggest matchup on the schedule for Week 2 of the 2018 NFL season. This time, the Jaguars and Patriots do battle in Jacksonville instead of at Gillette Stadium, where New England won their second straight conference title fewer than eight months ago.

Both teams enter the contest at 1-0. New England won their home opener against the Houston Texans 27-20. Jacksonville went on the road and defeated the New York Giants 20-15.

According to the latest betting odds at OddsShark, the Patriots are still considered to be the far superior team. New England was favored by more than a touchdown when the two teams met in January, and Jacksonville is a home underdog Sunday. The betting line moved to two points after opening as a pick’em, and the over/under is 45 points.

It’d be hard to ask for a more intriguing matchup this early in the season between two non-division rivals. It’s the reigning NFL MVP against the best defense in the conference, and arguably the entire NFL. The result could end up determining which team earns a bye or home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Other than his birth certificate, there’s little evidence to suggest that Brady won’t perform at his usual GOAT level again this season. After a spectacular regular season as a 40-year-old, Brady had a 108.6 passer rating with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs. He had a 102.2 passer rating in Week 1, doing so with a questionable core of receivers and against a good Houston defense.

Jacksonville’s defense is even scarier after ranking no worse than second in various important categories a season ago. The unit remained intact over the offseason and carried the Jaguars to their victory over the Giants. Eli Manning was under constant pressure in the opener, and linebacker Myles Jack returned a touchdown that wound up being the deciding score.

It’s no secret that the way to beat Brady is to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Calais Campbell picked up a sack in Week 1 after leading the AFC in that category last season. Third-year player Yannick Ngakoue looks primed for another Pro Bowl season after recording 20 sacks in his first two years.

The Jaguars won’t completely shut down Brady and the Patriots—no one does. Even as New England found themselves in a bit of an offensive funk over a month-long stretch last year, the team scored fewer than 20 points just once, winning 19-14 on short rest on “Thursday Night Football.”

The Patriots were held relatively in check for the first three quarters of last year’s conference title game. Brady engineered two fourth-quarter touchdown drives for the 24-20 win.

Through one game, New England can feel confident in its offensive line. J.J. Watt looked similar to the dominant defender he was a few years ago, and Brady was still well protected for most of the team’s home opener. The greatest quarterback ever doesn’t need a lot more than Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan and a bunch of so-so wide receivers. Getting to or around 24 points is a reasonable target for the defending AFC East champs.

New England can match their offensive production from last season’s AFC Championship Game. The Jaguars could have a difficult time doing the same.

Jacksonville never knows what they’re going to get out of Blake Bortles. Sometimes he can throw for close to 300 yards and a triple-digit passer rating like he did against New England in January. Far too often he looks like the quarterback that was held below 200 yards and a 70.0 passer rating at Metlife Stadium just a few days ago. The Jaguars’ offense was responsible for zero points in the second half.

To make matters worse, Bortles really doesn’t have one receiver that he can truly rely upon. Leonard Fournette should get plenty of carries if he plays, though the running back did miss most of Week 1 with a hamstring injury. T.J. Yeldon ran the ball 14 times for 51 yards in his place.

The Patriots’ defense had a couple of poor stretches last season. New England’s opponents averaged more than 31 points per game over the first four weeks, and Nick Foles won the Super Bowl MVP award as the Philadelphia Eagles scored 41 points against the Patriots two weeks after the AFC Championship Game. If their performance against Deshaun Watson and Houston means anything, New England’s defense could be noticeably tougher than the last time Jacksonville faced them.

A win for the Jaguars would be far from shocking. Their home crowd could give them a boost in the much-anticipated rematch. Jacksonville has won five consecutive games at TIAA Field. Maybe cornerback Jalen Ramsey or A.J. Bouye will take advantage of New England’s lack of depth at receiver and record a pick-six, taking even more of the responsibility off Bortles and the offense.

But New England remains the best team in the AFC. The final score of their Week 1 matchup isn’t indicative of how much the Patriots controlled their game with the Texans, and New England has covered the spread in 14 of their last 17 road games, per OddsShark. The Jaguars barely beat a Giants’ team that could be in for a long season.

It isn’t often that you can take the Patriots and lay less than a field goal, making this a difficult opportunity to pass up. Blake Bortles almost beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick last season. Don’t expect that to happen again.

Prediction: New England over Jacksonville, 27-16

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