New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 2017: Prediction, Betting Odds For AFC Championship Game

The New England Patriots have been the AFC’s best team all season long, and they look like they’re headed to Super Bowl LI. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers stand in their way in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

New England is a 5.5-point favorite over the Steelers in their second game of the 2017 NFL playoffs, via OddsShark. After defeating the Houston Texans in the divisional round and covering one of the largest point spreads in postseason history, the Patriots might not have much trouble winning one more home game.

Leading the NFL with a 14-2 regular-season record, New England has lost just one of their 13 games since Tom Brady returned from his Deflategate suspension. The Patriots have dominated most of their opponents with Brady under center, and while the remaining three contenders have won because of explosive offenses, New England continues to win with help from both sides of the ball.

Only two of New England’s last 12 victories have come by less than 11 points, and the team has outscored their last three opponents 110-33. Brady is arguably playing as well as he ever has, and his 28 passes and two interceptions in the regular season set an NFL record for touchdown-to-interception ratio. He played behind a defense that allowed a league-low 15.6 points per game.

New England’s 27-16 win in Pittsburgh on Oct. 23 doesn’t mean much since Ben Roethlisberger missed the game with an injury, though it’s no surprise that the Steelers’ defense played poorly. LeGarrette Blount ran for 127 yards on 24 attempts, finding his way into the end zone twice. Brady was terrific against the Steelers’ defense, which allowed the quarterback to complete 19 of 26 passes for 222 yards and two scores.

Brady has been virtually perfect against Pittsburgh at home throughout his career, and he should put up big numbers at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. He has a 4-0 record when hosting the Steelers, throwing 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Steelers’ defense has allowed just 28 total points in two playoff games, but they’ll be facing the greatest quarterback of all time instead of Alex Smith and Matt Moore.

Pittsburgh might be more capable than any other AFC team to win in New England. While their defense isn’t likely to have much success against the Patriots’ offense, the Steelers’ offense has the weapons necessary to win a shootout that goes well past the over/under of 51. Antonio Brown continues to look like the NFL’s best wide receiver with 232 receiving yards in the postseason, and Le’Veon Bell rushed for 170 yards in the divisional playoffs.

The Patriots’ No. 1 ranked scoring defense wasn’t exactly tested in the regular season since it didn’t face a quarterback that ranked in the top 10 in passer rating. Russell Wilson, the best quarterback to take on the Patriots, led the Seattle Seahawks to a 31-24 victory in New England. Roethlisberger, a future Hall of Famer, has a 95.4 passer rating in eight career games against the Patriots.

Pittsburgh’s offense, however, has had trouble scoring touchdowns at times against good defenses. The Steelers failed to get in the end zone against the Kansas City Chiefs in their second-round game, settling for six field goals. Pittsburgh only scored one touchdown in a win against the Cincinnati Bengals four weeks earlier, and they were kept out of the end zone completely in Week 3.

The Eagles, Chiefs and Bengals all rank in the top seven in red zone defense, and the Steelers could struggle against the Patriots’ eighth-ranked red zone defense.

New England has their flaws, and they are beatable, especially without Rob Gronkowski. But if the Patriots fail to win their fifth Super Bowl, it will likely be due to a loss against the Green Bay Packers or Atlanta Falcons.

Prediction: New England over Pittsburgh, 34-23