New US-China Trade War Talks Could Be A 'Breakthrough,' Chinese Insider Says

Global Times, a newspaper of the Communist Party of China (CPC), is proclaiming there might be a real "breakthrough" in the upcoming trade talks between China and the United States scheduled for October.

Global Times editor-in-chief Hu Xijin on Thursday tweeted, “China and the US announced new round of trade talks and will work to make substantial progress. Personally I think the US, worn out by the trade war, may no longer hope for crushing China's will. There's more possibility of a breakthrough between the two sides.”

China watchers noted Hu’s Twitter account is followed by many Wall Street traders and market participants for insights into China’s thinking on Trump’s trade war. Hu is known to have close links to high officials of the CPC.

He’s closely watched because of his record of accurate statements on China’s take on the trade war, which confirms his high-level contacts in Beijing. Hu very recently warned about China’s retaliation against president Donald Trump’s tariffs just hours before the Chinese made the official announcement on Sept. 1.

The same optimism about progress in the scheduled trade talks being more than likely is being voiced by a blog called “Taoran Notes.” This blog on the WeChat platform is apparently backed by Beijing because it isn’t censored. Like Hu, Taoran Notes is closely followed by Westerners for accurate insights into Beijing’s thinking on the trade war.

In a recent post, Taoran Notes said it’s “very likely” there will be “new developments” in the upcoming trade talks. It highlighted the statement from the Ministry of Commerce saying both sides will hold consultations in mid-September in preparation for “meaningful progress” in the ministerial-level talks in October.

Taoran Notes pointed out the phrase, “meaningful progress” hasn’t been used by Beijing at all since trade talks collapsed in May.

“Whether the trade war is headed in a positive direction or it will repeat again, I am afraid it still depends on how some people choose,” said the Taoran blog post.

Western analysts claim Taoran Notes is associated with the Economic Daily, China's leading business newspaper backed by the State Council. Taoran might refer to Taoranting Park, which is a short distance from the newspaper’s headquarters in Beijing.

“Taoran Notes must be backed by the government,” said Hong Hao, chief strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong back in May. “Otherwise, how come it is allowed to publish comments on trade when nobody else can? The government is managing the public expectations.”

Hong was referring to a post published by Taoran Notes in May that was the only comment from any source in China about Trump’s initial threat to escalate the trade war.

In its post, Taoran warned the U.S. not to fantasize about China making concessions that will damage its own interests. Analysts said this comment was later re-published by the WeChat account of People’s Daily, a rare move for the official newspaper of the CPC.

“There’s no winner in a trade war,” said Taoran. “If someone cannot see this after more than a year of battling, the reality will teach him over and over again, until he realizes it.”