New York Coronavirus Deaths Expected To Hit 32,000 By June 18

New York state has already tested more than one million residents for COVID-19, leading to the uncovering of 324,357 confirmed cases (including probable cases) and 24,788 deaths, as of Monday evening. It remains the state hardest hit by COVID-19 in the country.

Despite obvious successes such as reducing the number of new hospital admissions (which fell below 1,000 on April 25), a high number of deaths from the disease continue to plague the state. New York state's high death rate can be traced to the large population density, multiple initial introductions of the disease from Europe and the presence of several superspreaders.

A popular statistical model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington estimated 27,865 total deaths by May 10, 31,448 total deaths by June 1 and peak total death at 32,006 on June 18. There were 226 daily deaths Monday alone.

It now seems Gov. Andrew Cuomo is looking beyond May 15 (when the New York PAUSE order ends) to reopen more of the state's non-essential businesses. Last month, Cuomo revealed construction and manufacturing firms in less hard-hit regions will be the first to return to business.

“People are all talking about reopening, which we should be talking about,” said Cuomo in Rochester. “This is not a sustainable situation, close down everything, close down the economy, lock yourself in the home.”

On Monday, Cuomo revealed a more comprehensive business re-opening plan now divided into four phases across 10 regions. He said the progress of the rollout will depend on specific measurable progress against the coronavirus based on a set of requirements.

These requirements include declines in hospitalization rates, new cases and reported deaths, the availability of hospital and ICU beds, and expanded testing and contract tracing.

Phase one will begin in regions where these requirements are met. These regions will see construction, manufacturing, and some retail business reopen. Results of phase one will be evaluated after two weeks.

Phase two will commence based on the evaluation. This phase will allow more retailers, professional services businesses, finance and insurance and real estate firms to reopen.

Phase three will follow after another evaluation. It will allow restaurants and hotels and the hospitality industry to reopen. To reopen in phase four will be arts, education, and recreation businesses such as theaters and movie theaters.

Cuomo said some upstate regions already meet the requirements to begin phase one. He said the New York City metro area will be the last to qualify due to its deep COVID-19 crisis. New York City, however, meets three of the criteria: the 14-day declines in both hospitalizations and deaths and monthly testing numbers.

“Density is not your friend here, large gatherings are not your friend,” said Cuomo. “That’s why those situations would be down at the end.”