New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills 2017: Thursday Night Football Prediction, Odds

It might be time to start taking the team with the NFL’s longest playoff drought seriously. The Buffalo Bills have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, and they can take one step closer toward making the postseason by beating the New York Jets on “Thursday Night Football.”

Buffalo enters Week 9 with a 5-2 record, tied for the fewest losses in the AFC. The team is coming off consecutive wins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Oakland Raiders, defeating two teams that were expected to compete for playoff berths.

New York has been a surprise in their own right. Despite sitting in the basement of the AFC East with a 3-5 record, the Jets have almost reached their projected win total. They’ve lost three games in a row.

Most of Buffalo’s success has come at home. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at New Era Field, including a 21-12 win over the Jets in Week 1. Buffalo is 1-2 on the road, and the betting odds favor them by three points at MetLife Stadium in Week 9, according to OddsShark. The over/under is 42.5.

Defense has been the hallmark of Buffalo’s unexpectedly hot start. The Bills held the Raiders to 14 points Sunday, and just one team has scored more than 20 points against Buffalo. The Jacksonville Jaguars are the only team that gives up fewer points per game than the Bills.

Moving the ball against the Bills isn’t exactly impossible. They rank 20th in yards allowed per play. They are 29th in the league when it comes to passing yards allowed, and five teams have fewer than Buffalo’s 13 sacks.

Making big plays, however, has been the biggest difference.

The Bills are tied for first with 17 forced turnovers. Led by Micah Hyde and his five interceptions, Buffalo has 11 picks on the year. They’ve recovered six fumbles.

On offense, the Bills don’t give the ball away. They are the second-best in the NFL with just three turnovers, and their plus-14 turnover differential is by far the best in the league. The Jaguars are second at plus-eight.

Perhaps Buffalo’s turnover luck will run out. This type of pace is certainly hard to keep up, but that reality might not set in until after the Bills play the Jets.

The Jets are tied for fourth with 14 giveaways. As much of a pleasant surprise as Josh McCown has been, he’s thrown seven interceptions, including two to members of Buffalo’s secondary in the season opener.

Opposing quarterbacks have a 74.5 passer rating against the Bills. Derek Carr was held to a 71.2 passer rating with two picks in Buffalo Sunday afternoon. The Bills even forced Matt Ryan to throw a couple of interceptions and post a 61.8 passer rating when Buffalo won in Atlanta for their lone road victory.

Scoring enough points to support their defense was an issue in losses at Cincinnati and Carolina. That shouldn’t be a problem against New York, who ranks 28th against the run. LeSean McCoy averaged 5.0 yards per carry when the Bills hosted the Jets, and Gang Green has given up at least 24 points in each of their last three games.

Before the Bills are viewed as a team that can do some real damage in the playoffs, they’ll have to beat some good teams. Buffalo has feasted on mediocre competition, and just one of their five victories has come against an opponent that currently has a winning record.

Fortunately for the Bills, the Jets are mediocre at best.

Prediction: Buffalo over New York, 23-17