New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: 2017 AL Wild-Card Prediction, Odds

Few would have predicted the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins to meet in the 2017 American League Wild-Card Game before the start of the MLB season. New York had been setting themselves up to compete for a championship in either 2018 or 2019, while Minnesota was the only team to win fewer than 60 games in 2016.

Both teams, however, exceeded expectations over the last 162 games, and they’ve got a chance to reach the ALDS with just one victory. The Yankees host the Twins Tuesday night in the first official game of the 2017 MLB playoffs.

It became clear that the Yankees could make the postseason within the first few weeks of the season, and they’ve been near the top of the AL East for almost the entire year. That’s why it’s no surprise the betting odds favor them in the single-game elimination round, playing at home against a team that didn’t give themselves much of a chance to reach the playoffs only two months ago.

Minnesota appeared to give up on the 2017 season just prior to the July 31 trade deadline, sending starting pitcher Jaime Garcia to the Yankees. The Twins were three games under .500 and six games behind the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Trailing five teams in the wild-card standings, Minnesota didn’t look like a playoff team.

That was until the Twins turned things around, starting with a six-game winning streak in early August. Minnesota finished the month with 18 wins in 25 games, eventually distancing themselves from the Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays for the league’s final postseason berth.

The Twins finished the regular season at 85-77 on the strength of their hitting. Minnesota ranks fourth in the AL in both runs (815) and on-base percentage (.334). Brian Dozier is the team’s most dangerous hitter with 34 home runs, while Joe Mauer and Eddie Rosario both tied for a team-high .507 slugging percentage.

Just as the Twins surprised the rest of the league by emerging as the AL’s second wild-card team, they’ve got a chance to surprise the Yankees Tuesday night. Ervin Santana will take the mound after finishing fifth among AL starters with a 3.28 ERA. The veteran beat New York as a rookie to knock them out of the playoffs in 2005. Maybe he can do it again.

But there’s a reason that the Twins have +205 betting odds and the Yankees are -240 favorites, via OddsShark. Everything is set up for New York to get their first playoff win in five years.

The Yankees finished comfortably ahead of the Twins for home-field advantage. With a 91-71 record, they are clearly the better team, edging Minnesota in every facet of the game.

Led by AL MVP candidate Aaron Judge, New York ranks second in the league in runs and first in home runs. New York has the better No.1 starting pitcher in Luis Severino, who would be in contention for the AL Cy Young award if it weren’t for Corey Kluber and Chris Sale.

Perhaps most importantly in an elimination game, the Yankees have the better bullpen. New York’s relievers are third in all of baseball with a 3.34 ERA. Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 22nd with a 4.40 ERA.

If Severino gets into any kind of trouble, the Yankees can turn to Chad Green and his 1.83 ERA, or David Robertson and his 1.03 ERA since joining the club in July. That’s not to mention Dellin Betances, who’s been selected to four straight All-Star Games, and Aroldis Chapman, who got the win in Game 7 of last year’s World Series.

The Yankees swept the Twins in the only series between the two clubs at Yankee Stadium. It happened just two weeks ago as New York outscored Minnesota by a total of 18-6.

New York needed four games to beat Minnesota in both the 2003 and 2004 ALDS. It took them three games to defeat the Twins in both the 2009 and 2010 ALDS.

When they meet again in the 2017 playoffs, the Yankees will need just one game to end Minnesota’s brief postseason run.

New York over Minnesota, 4-1