New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Game 1: Prediction, Odds, Starting Pitchers For 2019 ALDS

The Minnesota Twins are hoping history doesn’t repeat itself. The betting odds suggest that it will when the AL Central champs take on the New York Yankees in the 2019 American League Division series.

New York earned home-field advantage in the first round of the MLB playoffs by finishing two games ahead of Minnesota in the regular-season standings. The Yankees will host the Twins in Game 1 Friday night, starting the latest chapter of the postseason rivalry between the two teams.

The 2019 ALDS marks the sixth time in the last 16 years that the Yankees and Twins have met in the playoffs. Each one of those matchups has ended the same way—with New York advancing to the next round, never reaching the brink of elimination.

It took New York four games in 2003 and 2004 to defeat Minnesota in the ALDS. The Twins didn’t win a single game in their next two playoff matchups with the Yankees, getting swept in both the 2009 and 2010 ALDS.

In the 2017 AL Wild-Card Game, the Yankees beat the Twins 8-4. That extended New York’s postseason winning streak over Minnesota to 10 games.

This year’s series is expected to be more of the same. The Yankees have -245 odds to reach the ALCS, according to OddsShark. New York is a -180 home favorite in Game 1. Minnesota is a +170 underdog.

James Paxton will take the ball for the Yankees in the series opener. Jose Berrios is the Twins’ starting pitcher.

Paxton became New York’s No.1 starter by winning 10 consecutive starts in August and September. After allowing seven runs in four innings in a July 26 loss at Boston, the left-hander posted a 2.25 ERA over his next 60 innings, striking out 68 batters and allowing just five home runs.

Minnesota hitters have a .232/.271/.392 slash line with four home runs against Paxton in 125 career at-bats. The 30-year-old only pitched three innings against the Twins this season, leaving his one start with a knee injury.

Berrios has downright bad numbers against the Yankees, who led MLB in runs scored. New York’s regular-season roster has a .302/.397/.508 slash line in 63 at-bats against the right-hander. Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres are a combined 11-22.

Berrios hasn’t faced the Yankees in 2019. He took the loss in the 2017 AL Wild-Card Game, surrendering three runs in three innings as the first pitcher out of the bullpen.

Paxton has never made a postseason start. He’ll be facing a lineup that feasts on left-handed pitching. The Twins led the AL with a .872 OPS against left-handers.

Minnesota set a record with 307 home runs in the regular season. New York wasn’t far behind, hitting 306 homers of their own.

Berrios had an inconsistent second-half, making a quality start in only half of his final 10 appearances. With the better starting pitcher at home, New York’s dominance over Minnesota should continue for at least one more game.

Game 1 Prediction: New York over Minnesota, 7-3