Many have been speculating about whether there will be a U.S. recession in 2022 following the more recent economic recovery. However, geopolitical turmoil with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, along with high-interest rates and oil prices, raise the potential for one. Though something to consider is not every state in the U.S. will survive a recession equally.

A report from Merchant Maverick found the 10 most likely states to survive a potential recession: Nebraska, North Dakota, Minnesota, Delaware, West Virginia, Oklahoma, New Jersey, Texas, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

The report used eight metrics to determine a states' likelihood of survival and included percentages used to calculate the weight of each metric. The eight metrics used were the size of state government reserves (17.5%), state GDP per capita (17.5%), debt-to-income ratio (17.5%), unemployment insurance coverage (17.5%), unemployment rate (10%), housing affordability (10%), state income tax rates (6%), and total state GDP change from 2007 to 2010 (4%).

Merchant Maverick looked at data from the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Statista, the Department of Labor, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Association of Home Builders, and Tax-Rates.org to determine each states' ranking.

Many of the states in the top 10 are well situated around the upper Midwest region and no upper midwest state ranked below Michigan, the 17th best-poised state to survive a recession. The report notes that "traditional Midwestern values" including thrift, hard work, and patience may help these states stand strong through a recession.

The report also notes that these upper midwestern states all share low unemployment rates and prudent tax and spending habits. Many of these states also saw positive GDP growth during the Great Recession, which makes it more likely they would survive another recession.

"It seems that these are state government values, too, and they're going to help people when the next recession hits," said Mary Brown, Special Project Director with Merchant Maverick, in a press release.

However, there is no one indicator that one state is more likely to survive a recession than another. Regardless of where they sit on the list, some states are better in one of the eight factors considered than others. For example, the top state, Nebraska, only insures 30% of its unemployed while Minnesota, which sits in third, insures 50% of its unemployed population, the second-highest in the country.

The report indicates that a high GDP, seen in states like New York, Washington state, and California, is not a great indicator of recession survivability. These states have high household debts and unemployment rates, which caused them to rank lower on the list but still in the middle of the pack.

States that ranked the lowest on the list included Nevada, Arizona, Kentucky, Hawaii, New Mexico, Idaho, Maine, Arkansas, Florida, and Mississippi.

The Sunbelt was an area in the report identified as most at risk in the event of a recession.

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