NFL 2018 Award Predictions: MVP, Defensive, Offensive Player Of the Year, Rookie Award Picks

Making predictions for individual NFL awards can be a tricky thing. Carson Wentz was nearly the 2017 MVP in just his second season, but an injury ended his candidacy and Tom Brady received the most first-place votes for the third time. It was no surprise that Aaron Donald was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, though it’s not likely that many picked his teammate Todd Gurley to become the Offensive Player of the Year.

What will happen in 2018? Here are picks for all the major individual awards for the upcoming NFL season:

MVP: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

NFL MVP is essentially the “Best Quarterback” award since Adrian Peterson is the only non-quarterback to receive the most votes in the last 11 years. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the league’s top signal callers, but two other players have managed to win the award in the last three years. The upcoming season could be Brees’ turn now that the Saints have a defense good enough to put them among the league’s best teams.

No quarterback since 1990 has won the MVP award without his team winning at least 11 games. The Saints certainly have 11-plus win potential after losing just five games in 2017. Brees and Brady are the only quarterbacks that have registered passer ratings north of 100 in each of the last three seasons, and no other quarterback has even done it twice during that time. Brees’ touchdown numbers should improve from 2017 when the Saints had more rushing touchdowns than any other team by a significant margin.

Take Brees’ stats from the last five years and here’s an average season for the Saints’ quarterback: 4,905 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, a 69.6 completion percentage and a 101.7 passer rating. If Brees can put up those numbers on a team that earns a first-round bye, he’s got a great chance to win his first MVP award.

Coach of the Year: Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars

Marrone was just as deserving as 2017 Coach of the Year winner Sean McVay for the award. The Jaguars had a seven-win improvement from the previous season in Marrone’s first full year as the team’s head coach, and he did it with one of the NFL’s worst starting quarterbacks.

Exceeding expectations is usually the biggest factor when it comes to winning Coach of the Year. That means it could be difficult for coaches like McVay, Bill Belichick, Doug Pederson and Mike Tomlin to get the most votes. All of those coaches lead teams that have 10/1 Super Bowl odds or better, while the Jaguars have close to 20/1 championship odds. Jacksonville won 10 games in 2017, and their defense is good enough to potentially lead the team to a few more victories in 2018.

Before leaving the Buffalo Bills after the 2014 season, Marrone led the franchise to their first winning record in a decade. He did the same for Jacksonville in 2017 and should be in the Coach of the Year conversation throughout the entire upcoming season.

Comeback Player of the Year: David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

It’s easy to forget just how spectacular Johnson was in 2016 because it was his only Pro Bowl season and he only played in last year’s season opener. The running back was the league’s most dynamic player two seasons ago, leading the NFL in all-purpose yards (2,118) and touchdowns (20). He averaged nearly the same number of total yards per game when he became Arizona’s featured back in the final five weeks of the 2015 season, and he’s certain to put up big numbers in 2018 if he stays healthy.

That’s a relatively small “if” compared to the other Comeback Player of the Year candidates. Deshaun Watson suffered a torn ACL for the second time in his career, and Carson Wentz will enter Week 1 not having taken a hit since he tore his ACL just nine months ago. Johnson fully recovered from his fractured wrist even before the NFL Draft in April, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be back to his 2016 form.

Don’t expect Johnson’s numbers to be quite as impressive as the stats he put up while playing in a formerly high-powered Cardinals’ offense. But simply totaling 1000-plus rushing yards and 500-plus receiving yards could put him in contention for the award.

Offensive Player of the Year: Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Unlike MVP, you don’t have to be a quarterback to win this award. You probably can’t be a wide receiver, though, since only running backs and quarterbacks have been named the Offensive Player of the Year in each of the last 23 years. Todd Gurley received the most votes in 2017, and it could be Bell’s turn in 2018.

It’s almost hard to believe that Bell has never won the award and has only received two votes in his career. He’s been about as good as any playmaker over the last four years, averaging 129.3 yards from scrimmage per game. Bell is the only player that’s been a top-five rusher in each of the last two years, as well as in three of the last four seasons. The running back has caught at least 75 passes in each of his last three full seasons, and there’s no reason to believe the 26-year-old is slowing down.

Bell’s got a chance to put up some of the best numbers of his career as he looks to earn a long-term contract as a free agent in 2019. The Steelers might not exactly be shy about giving him the ball since they probably won’t be the team giving him that lucrative deal, resulting in plenty of touches and yards for the league’s best running back.

Defensive Player of the Year: Von Miller, Denver Broncos

It’s very hard to be named Defensive Player of the Year these days if you’re not a dominant pass rusher. Luke Kuechly is the only winner in the last seven years that didn’t have at least 11 sacks, so it’s a pretty safe bet that a player that makes his living in the secondary won’t garner the most votes. Miller might be better at getting to the quarterback than anyone, making him the best choice to be recognized as the best defensive player in 2018.

Miller has played at least 15 games in six of his seven NFL seasons. The linebacker has averaged 13 sacks per year in those six seasons, never finishing with fewer than 10 sacks in a single year. Denver’s defense should carry less of a burden in 2018 now that they have a competent quarterback, giving Miller a chance to be the anchor of the AFC’s top defense.

The Broncos’ schedule gives Miller a chance to feast on some of the worst offensive lines in football. Teams like the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are all expected to have a hard time protecting their quarterbacks, and Miller will face all of them within the first 10 weeks. Getting to at least 13 sacks could be no problem at all for the former Super Bowl MVP.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

There’s a good reason Barkley is the heavy favorite to win this award. He’s one of the most talented players to enter the league in recent memory, which is why the Giants used the No.2 overall pick on the running back. Barkley might not help New York win a ton of games, but you can be pretty sure that he’ll put up big numbers right away.

Barkley showed what he could do in his first snap as a pro when he turned what would’ve been a short gain for most running backs into a 39-yard run. It was that same patience and quickness that allowed him to average 1,281 rushing yards and 5.7 yards per attempt in his three seasons at Penn State. Barkley also caught 54 passes for 634 yards in 2017, and he could be one of Eli Manning’s top targets.

Five quarterbacks have been named Offensive Rookie of the Year in the last decade. Dak Prescott is the only signal caller to win the award in the last five seasons. Sam Darnold is the only realistic possibility this season since he could start all 16 games, but he’ll have his struggles as a 21-year-old quarterback that’s lacking in reliable weapons with the New York Jets.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints

The Saints sure know how to draft. It wouldn’t be hyperbole to say New Orleans had one of the best draft classes of all time in 2017 when they came away with Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore and Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara, not to mention key starters like tackle Ryan Ramczyk and safety Marcus Williams. The organization gave up the No.27 overall pick, a fifth-rounder and next year’s first-round pick to take Davenport at No.14 overall, so don’t be surprised if he does big things in his first season.

Davenport missed three weeks of training camp with a groin injury, but you wouldn’t know it by how he played in his preseason debut. The defensive end had three tackles and a half-sack in just 15 snaps in New Orleans’ third exhibition game. He had 8.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for a loss in his final college season and could be a major contributor to one of the NFC’s top defenses if given the chance.

Lattimore last year and Marcus Peters in 2015 became the exceptions by winning this award as members of the secondary. Every other winner in the last 19 seasons has been a linebacker or a defensive lineman. Maybe a higher draft pick like Bradley Chubb or Roquan Smith is a safer prediction, but Davenport might have an edge by playing for a team that will contend for the Super Bowl.