NFL 2019 Win Totals: Over/Under Predictions For Colts, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, AFC South Pick

For much of this decade, the AFC South has been the NFL’s weakest division. That changed last season when the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans all finished above .500. The Jacksonville Jaguars are fewer than two years removed from playing in the AFC Championship Game and almost reaching the Super Bowl.

How many games will each AFC South team win in the 2019 NFL season? Below are predictions for the division, based on the latest over/under win totals at New Jersey’s FanDuel Sportsbook.

Indianapolis Colts: 9.5 Wins (-135 Over/+115 Under)

Andrew Luck’s injury is making the Colts’ under look more and more appealing by the day. The quarterback hasn’t played in an exhibition game, and he won’t practice ahead of the team’s Week 3 preseason game. Maybe Luck will be ready for the season opener, but the fact that he’s been dealing with this calf/ankle issue for several months, as well as his injury history, doesn’t inspire much confidence that he’ll be completely healthy when the regular season begins. Even if Luck plays all 16 games, the Colts will have more competition in the AFC South than the odds would indicate.

Prediction: Under

Houston Texans: 8.5 Wins (+125 Over/-150 Under)

The Texans are being overlooked in 2019, despite winning the AFC South last season for the third time in four years. Deshaun Watson has legitimate MVP potential, having posted a 103 passer rating in both of his NFL seasons. The addition of Duke Johnson gives the quarterback a very good pass-catcher in the backfield. DeAndre Hopkins might be the league’s best receiver. J.J. Watt is still a menace on defense, and Houston was tied for fourth in yards allowed in 2018. The offensive line is still an issue, but if draft picks Tytus Howard and Max Scharping can even be decent, it might be enough for the Texans to repeat as division champions.

Prediction: Over

Tennessee Titans: 8 Wins (+110 Over/-130 Under)

The Titans were in playoff contention last season up until the final game, even though Blaine Gabbert was forced to play in half the team’s games. Ryan Tannehill is one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks if Marcus Mariota has trouble staying on the field. Tennessee has gone 9-7 in three straight seasons. An elite offensive line allowed Derrick Henry to perform like the league’s best running back in the final month of 2018. The Titans’ three best non-divisional opponents will all visit Tennessee.

Prediction: Over

Jacksonville Jaguars: 7.5 Wins (-120 Over/+100 Under)

Betting on Nick Foles might be the riskiest proposition in the NFL. He’s as unpredictable as any quarterback we’ve seen, looking like an MVP one game and a pedestrian backup the next week. Foles will play behind a questionable offensive line with maybe the worst receiving corps in football. Jacksonville is the worst team in the division with a head coach that’s likely on the hot seat. The Jaguars’ defense will probably have to return to its dominant 2017 form, which is a lot to ask, in order for the team to have a winning season

Prediction: Under

Division Winner: Texans