NFL 2021 Win Totals: Over/Under Predictions For All 32 Teams

With the NFL instituting a new 17-game schedule, nine teams are projected to have double-digit wins in the 2021 season. Three teams have preseason win totals of six or fewer after nine teams failed to win more than five games a year ago.

Here are projected win totals and over/under predictions for every team heading into the upcoming NFL season. All betting odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Arizona Cardinals: 8.5 Wins (+105 Over/-125 Under)

The Cardinals might’ve made the playoffs last year had an injury not hamped Kyler Murray in the second half of the season. The quarterback and defense should both be better, allowing Arizona to improve from it’s .500 record in 2020.

Prediction: Over

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins (-120 Over/+100 Under)

Arthur Smith will help an offense that still has plenty of talent. Matt Ryan remains an above-average quarterback. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts could quickly become one of the best players at his position. Atlanta is projected to face one of the NFL’s weakest schedules.

Prediction: Over

Baltimore Ravens: 11 Wins (+100 Over/-120 Under)

Going 12-5 in a very competitive AFC North won’t be easy. The Ravens don’t have an impressive group of playmakers, a fact that’s been made worse by injuries to J.K Dobbins and Rashod Bateman.

Prediction: Under

Buffalo Bills: 11 Wins (-120 Over/+100 Under)

The AFC East could end up being one of the league’s toughest divisions. Buffalo has difficult road games in Kansas City, Tennessee, New Orleans and Tampa Bay on its schedule. Josh Allen won’t be able to carry an iffy Bills’ defense every week.

Prediction: Under

Carolina Panthers: 7.5 Wins (-105 Over/-115 Under)

Sam Darnold wasn’t good in three seasons with the Jets, and he’ll probably be one of the league’s worst quarterbacks in Carolina behind a shaky offensive line. The Panthers don’t have an easy schedule, especially in the second half when only one of their final nine opponents is projected to have a losing record.

Prediction: Under

Chicago Bears: 7.5 Wins (+100 Over/-120 Under)

Chicago’s defense probably needs to be great in order for the Bears to have a winning record. Matt Nagy is intent on letting Andy Dalton start the season under center. Even when Justin Fields inevitably gets the starting job, he could have plenty of rookie growing pains. Chicago’s offensive line and wide receivers are both below average.

Prediction: Under

Cincinnati Bengals: 6.5 Wins (+100 Over/-120 Under)

With a 6-25-1 record as a head coach, Zac Taylor might not be the answer in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow could struggle to start the season after tearing his ACL just nine months ago. The defense could be an issue all year long.

Prediction: Under

Cleveland Browns: 10.5 Wins (-105 Over/-115 Under)

There’s a good chance the Browns are the best team in the AFC North. Cleveland is even better after challenging Kansas City in the divisional playoffs, adding key pieces to its secondary and getting Odell Beckham Jr. back from injury. With the NFL’s best offensive line and the reigning Coach of the Year, Cleveland can certainly match last year’s total of 11 victories.

Prediction: Over

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Wins (+115 Over/-135 Under)

It’s hard to have any confidence in Dallas because of their defense and lingering questions about Dak Prescott’s shoulder. It’s certainly possible that the Cowboys’ offense will overpower the rest of the NFC East, but even when Prescott played in 2020, Dallas went 2-3. Dallas has failed to win 10 games in three of the last four seasons.

Prediction: Under

Denver Broncos: 8.5 Wins (-120 Over/+100 Under)

Everything is in place for Denver to have its first winning record in five years. Only five of the Broncos’ opponents finished above .500 in 2020. Denver has one of the league’s best defenses and a talented group of playmakers. Teddy Bridgewater showed in New Orleans that he can win games with a very good roster around him.

Prediction: Over

Detroit Lions: 5 Wins (+100 Over/-120 Under)

There is very little to like about this Lions’ team. After winning five games in 2020, Detroit downgraded at quarterback with Jared Goff and lost its three best wide receivers. The Lions have a brutal start to their schedule with games against the 49ers, Packers and Ravens, so any optimism the team might have could quickly disappear.

Prediction: Under

Green Bay Packers: 10.5 Wins (-130 Over/+110 Under)

With Aaron Rodgers returning for one more season, Green Bay remains a top Super Bowl contender. Following consecutive 13-3 seasons, the Packers didn’t take a major step back in the offseason. Facing the NFC West and AFC North could make it difficult for Green Bay to win more than 11 or 12 games.

Prediction: Over

Houston Texans: 4 Wins (-120 Over/+100 Under)

The Texans went 4-12 last season with Deshaun Watson playing better than almost any other quarterback. Why would they have a better record if Watson might not take a snap in all of 2021? Houston is a prime candidate to tank for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Prediction: Under

Indianapolis Colts: 9 Wins (-110 Over/+100 Under)

The Colts have too many question marks at the most important positions. Carson Wentz is recovering from foot surgery and an awful 2020 campaign. An injured T.Y. Hilton will be missing from an already mediocre receiving corps to start the season. In seven of their first eight games, Indianapolis will face teams that are projected to have a winning record.

Prediction: Under

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5 Wins (+115 Over/-135 Under)

It’s a lot to ask for the Jaguars to have a six-win improvement from last year’s 1-15 season. Trevor Lawrence will have his growing pains. Jacksonville could have one of the league’s worst defenses. There are a lot of questions about Urban Meyer’s ability to be a successful NFL head coach.

Prediction: Under

Kansas City Chiefs: 12.5 Wins (+120 Over/-140 Under)

Patrick Mahomes has never lost more than four games in a regular season, and he won’t start in 2021. Only serious injuries can slow down the Chiefs, who have both the best quarterback and wide receiver-tight end combo. Kansas City rebuilt the offensive line that failed it in the Super Bowl. Andy Reid has averaged more than 11 wins per season in eight years as Kansas City’s head coach.

Prediction: Over

Las Vegas Raiders: 7 Wins (-110 Over/-110 Under)

In three seasons during Jon Gruden’s second stint as head coach, the Raiders have never finished with a winning record. Derek Carr could be hard-pressed to match last year’s production. The defense is still mediocre. The rest of the AFC West improved, but Las Vegas did not.

Prediction: Under

Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins (+110 Over/-135 Under)

The Chargers seem to always underachieve when high expectations are placed on the team. As well as Justin Herbert played as a rookie, he’s unlikely to take another major leap in Year No. 2. The defense’s top players are injury-prone. It remains to be seen if Brandon Staley will be a good head coach.

Prediction: Under

Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 Wins (+120 Over/-140 Under)

Sean McVay is 43-21 in four years as the Rams’ head coach. Matthew Stafford is a notable upgrade at quarterback over Jared Goff. That should make up for a regression on defense, which is still a top unit led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.

Prediction: Over

Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Wins (+125 Over/-145 Under)

The Dolphins have greatly exceeded expectations in both seasons under Brian Flores, going 5-11 and then 10-6. Tua Tagovailoa could be one of the league’s top surprises now that the once-highly touted quarterback isn’t coming off serious hip surgery. Miami has surrounded Tagovailoa with talented playmakers, and the defense is more than solid.

Prediction: Over

Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 Wins (-160 Over/+135 Under)

There are plenty of reasons to believe Minnesota will improve on last year’s 7-9 record. It was the first time in six years that the Vikings finished below .500. The defense should be much better with healthy seasons from Danielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks, along with additions to the secondary. Kirk Cousins is always solid, posting a 103.6 passer rating in three years with the Vikings.

Prediction: Over

New Orlean Saints: 9 Wins (+125 Over/-145 Under)

Usually one of the top units in football, New Orleans’ offense could be much worse in 2021. The dropoff from Drew Brees to Jameis Winston is significant, and Mike Thomas’ injury leaves the Saints with an unproven receiving corps. New Orleans lost several defensive starters, as well.

Prediction: Under

New England Patriots: 9.5 Wins (+100 Over/-120 Under)

This Patriots’ roster is much better than last year’s team that went 7-9. New England went on a historic spending spree in free agency, and key players are returning after opting out of the 2020 season. Cam Newton ranked dead last in passing yards per game a season ago, but Mac Jones looks like the real deal at quarterback.

Prediction: Over

New York Giants: 7 Wins (-130 Over/.+110 Under)

In a poor division, the Giants can go 7-10 and win one more game than they did a season ago. The defense is above-average, and there are better weapons around Daniel Jones. The offensive line could hold New York back and keep it out of the playoffs for a fifth straight season

Prediction: Over

New York Jets: 6 Wins (-115 Over/-105 Under)

The Jets are rebuilding with first-time head coach Robert Saleh and rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. New York didn’t markedly improve its roster in the offseason. Don’t expect a five-win improvement from last year’s 2-14 record.

Prediction: Under

Philadelphia Eagles: 6.5 Wins (-150 Over/+125 Under)

The Eagles’ roster is more talented than what public perception might suggest. The offensive line should be better than it was in 2020. Between Jalen Hurt and Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia should have at least adequate quarterback play. Facing a last-place schedule, which features no games against teams with winning 2020 records after Week 11, could help the Eagles hit the over.

Prediction: Over

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins (+110 Over/-130 Under)

Pittsburgh has a high floor, making the Steelers a good bet to win nine games. The Steelers have never finished below .500 since drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Despite a first-round playoff exit, Pittsburgh still went 12-4 in the 2020 regular season. A new offensive coordinator and one of the league’s best defenses will prevent Pittsburgh from suffering five more losses in 2021.

Prediction: Over

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 Wins (+100 Over/-120 Under)

The hype around the 49ers is a little too high, given their difficult division and questions at quarterback. San Francisco has lost at least 10 games in three of four seasons under Kyle Shanahan. The defense might not quite be the same in light of Saleh’s departure. An easy schedule outside of their NFC West games could get the 49ers into the playoffs.

Prediction: Under

Seattle Seahawks: 10 Wins (-110 Over/-110 Under)

The only quarterback to throw more than 30 touchdown passes in each of the last four seasons, Russell Wilson essentially guarantees the Seahawks a winning record. In nine seasons with Seattle, the quarterback has never won fewer than nine games, averaging 10.9 wins per year. Seattle should be considered on par with Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Prediction: Over

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5 Wins (-150 Over/+125 Under)

There are plenty of reasons to believe the defending champs will improve on last year’s 11-5 record. Tom Brady played much better at the end of his first season with the Bucs when he was more experienced in the offensive system. Tampa Bay returns all 22 starters from its Super Bowl roster. The Saints, who have taken a clear step back, beat the Bucs twice in 2020. Tampa Bay could win 13 or 14 games.

Prediction: Over

Tennessee Titans: 9 Wins (-150 Over/+125 Under)

Tennessee is clearly the class of an otherwise weak AFC South. The Titans have won at least nine games in five straight seasons. Since making Ryan Tannehill the starter midway through the 2019 season, Tennessee has gone 18-8. As long as the Titans don’t have the AFC’s worst defense, they’ll have a winning record, at the very least.

Prediction: Over

Washington Football Team: 8.5 Wins (-115 Over/-105 Under)

Is the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick really going to result in two more wins for Washington? The reigning NFC East champs beat a bunch of weak opponents in 2020. The team’s non-divisional schedule is brutal. In addition to facing the Chiefs, Packers, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Saints, Washington will have to visit Buffalo, Denver and Las Vegas.

Prediction: Under