NFL Draft 2018 Quarterbacks: Predictions For Where Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, Allen, Others Get Picked
The NFL draft is loaded with quarterback depth and at a time when there has been a big shakeup at the position. Kirk Cousins, Alex Smith and Case Keenum are just a few of the starters that have changed teams this offseason.
While there could be as many as five quarterbacks taken among the top 10 overall picks, a clear frontrunner remains unclear. The last time there was a "can't miss" quarterback was 2012 when the Indianapolis Colts selected Andrew Luck with the No.1 overall pick.
This class has several intriguing and speculative prospects, while some low-level prospects may emerge as potential starters.
In some ways, this group seems to mirror the 2014 class, which featured Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, as well as Tom Savage, A.J. McCarron and Zach Mettenberger.
Five quarterbacks were selected within the first 62 picks in 2014. It wouldn't be surprising if five quarterbacks are picked in the first round in 2018.
Outside the top prospects is a group of promising and rather polished quarterbacks who can perhaps thrive in the right system and if given a real chance, like Luke Falk (Washington State), Riley Ferguson (Memphis) and Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State). All three quarterbacks could find themselves picked on Friday, with Rudolph potentially selected in the second round.
Other quarterbacks that could hear their names called this weekend include Kyle Lauletta (Richmond), Chase Litton (Marshall), Mike White (Western Kentucky), Alex McGough (Florida International), Nick Shimonek (Texas Tech) and Tanner Lee (Nebraska). There is also Austin Allen (Arkansas), Kyle Allen (Houston), J.T. Barrett (Ohio State), Kurt Benkert (Virginia), Danny Etling (LSU), Quinton Flowers (South Florida), Kenny Hill (TCU), Richard Lagow (Indiana), Brandon Silvers (Troy), Anu Solomon (Baylor) and Logan Woodside (Toledo).
Josh Allen, Wyoming
2017 Stats: 1,658 yards/13 TDs/6 INTs/56.2%/2017 rushing yards/5 rushing TDs
There's so much to like about Allen's fundamentals as teams will definitely give him strong consideration because he's 6-foot-5 and has a great arm. There might be some added interest in Allen because of Carson Wentz's success and since they have similar size and the ability to improvise, as well as the obvious fact that they're both from little-known football programs. There was talk that Allen might be the No. 1 overall pick because he's such a safe bet, but he may have less upside than some others in this group.
Prediction: No. 6 overall
Sam Darnold, USC
2017 Stats: 3,787 yards/26 TDs/12 INTs/63.7%/5 rushing TDs
Lots of questions surround Darnold. Many don't like his passing decisions and his somewhat unpolished style. But he enters the draft after playing in a pro-style system at USC and without a superstar target that Trojan quarterbacks have grown so accustomed to over the years.
Darnold can work out the kinks in camp and preseason because everything else is there: athleticism, grit, arm strength and accuracy. ESPN's Todd McShay has consistently projected Darnold at No. 1. He is probably too talented to pass up.
Predicted Pick: No. 1 overall
Lamar Jackson, Louisville
2017 Stats: 3,490 yards/25 TDs/6 INTs/60.4%/1,443 yards rushing/17 rushing TDs
Jackson might be the best gamble of the draft due to speed and arm strength. It's doubtful he can start right away, but the talent is there to become an elite playmaker. Teams that don't have the luxury of a consistent offensive line should strongly consider Jackson since he is capable of making the most out of broken plays. It's a crucial attribute that Deshaun Watson proved can provide a big lift to a stagnant offense. Based on his upside, Jackson might provide more value than the others on this list.
Prediction: Mid or late first round
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
2017 Stats: 4,340 yards/41 TDs/5 INTs/71.0%/310 rushing yards/5 rushing TDs
ESPN's David Pollack stated that Mayfield should be the first quarterback taken in the draft despite inevitable comparisons to Manziel due to their similar size and style. But the comparisons are mostly misguided. Mayfield has better tools and seems more grounded and thus more likely to avoid the off-the-field problems that plagued Manziel.
Some NFL teams may see Mayfield as a gamble that can pay off big. He will need to make adjustments in the NFL, but the determination and confidence are there for him to prove his detractors wrong. Mayfield had a spectacular college career and looks like he wants to continue being a star.
Predicted Pick: No. 5 overall
Josh Rosen, UCLA
2017 Stats: 3,717 yards/26 TDs/10 INTs/62.5%/2 rushing TDs
Easily Rosen's best attribute is his NFL-level passing ability. His natural footwork and balance are excellent and he has the brain of an experienced pro quarterback. Indeed, a big reason to like Rosen is his NFL readiness. It would come as little surprise if Rosen is a starter on Week 1.
But as strong has Rosen has looked at UCLA and combines, there might be fear that there isn't much room for growth. NFL teams might prefer a quarterback who has more tools and can eventually exceed expectations. The New York Jets are probably wise to play it safe and take Rosen.
Predicted Pick: No. 3 overall
After the Top 5 there is a dropoff. Some quarterbacks may find their way into a higher spot with teams looking for a gem like Dak Prescott. In 2017, DeShone Kizer was drafted in the second round, and there were two quarterbacks selected in the third round, one in the fourth, one in the fifth, one in the six and one in the seventh. In total, 10 quarterbacks were taken in 2017.
Luke Falk, Washington State Though he lacks mobility, scouts like Falk's arm strength. He was an accurate thrower in college and has solid pocket presence.
Predicted Pick: 4th Round
Riley Ferguson, Memphis His stock appeared to have dropped after the combine. There is a chance he won't get drafted, but still a good possibility he lands on a team as a free agent.
Predicted Pick: Undrafted
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State He needs work but might slip with fewer teams interested in a quarterback after the top 5. Scouts like Rudolph despite his lack of athleticism. He has a strong arm and good size. The New England Patriots may have interest.
Predicted Pick: Second Round
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