NFL Picks 2016: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 14

Week 14 has arguably the best primetime schedule in the entire 2016 NFL season. The three games feature top playoff contenders with the potential to determine division winners.

The Kansas City Chiefs are three-point favorites over the Oakland Raiders on Thursday night, according to the latest Las Vegas betting odds, and a win would give them sole possession of first place in the AFC West. The Dallas Cowboys have already clinched a playoff berth, but they can win the NFC East with a victory over the New York Giants on Sunday night. Week 14 comes to a conclusion with the leaders of the AFC East and AFC North going up against each other.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets for Week 14 of the 2016 NFL season:

Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

The Raiders own the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but their rivals might be the best team in the division. The Chiefs have a good chance to defeat the Raiders on Thursday night and prove that they are the biggest threat to the Patriots in the conference.

Kansas City has taken on all of the NFL’s top four scoring teams and emerged victoriously. That includes last week’s win over the Falcons and their Oct. 16 win in Oakland. The Chiefs forced Derek Carr to have arguably his worst game of the season, and the quarterback could have more trouble when visiting Arrowhead Stadium. Alex Smith has limited his mistakes to give Kansas City an offense that ranks in the top half of the NFL in points scored, and the Chiefs should be able to move the ball against a defense that’s given up more yards than 29 other teams.

Washington Redskins (-1)

The Redskins have already beaten the Philadelphia Eagles by a touchdown, and that was when both teams appeared to be playoff contenders. Now that Philadelphia has nothing to play for and is the clear worst team in the NFC East, there’s little reason to believe Washington won’t beat their rivals once again.

Carson Wentz might have a bright future ahead of him, but he still has a long way to go before becoming a top quarterback. Whether it’s the league catching up with him or his lack of weapons, the quarterback hasn’t posted a passer rating of better than 86.7 in his last five games. Another mediocre performance won’t be enough to keep up with Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, who rank second in total offense. Washington has scored at least 23 points in each of their last five games, and Philadelphia’s struggling defense has given up more than 26 points per game since Week 8.

Minnesota Vikings (-3)

The Vikings have just one victory since Week 5, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have done the same. Facing the worst team in the NFL’s worst division is exactly what Minnesota needs to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Despite their struggles, the Vikings still have an elite defense, and the team’s offense won’t have to do much to leave Jacksonville with a victory. Having played six times against teams that rank in the top half of the league in points allowed, the Jaguars are 0-6, averaging 16.3 points per contest. Blake Bortles has more pick-sixes than career wins, and Minnesota’s secondary, which ranks second in opponents’ passer rating, should take advantage of the quarterback’s propensity to make mistakes.

Dallas Cowboys (-3)

The Cowboys are far and away the best team in the NFC East, and they should clinch the division title on Sunday night. Three months after losing a home game against the Giants, they have a chance to return the favor at MetLife Stadium.

New York’s defense allowed them to win six straight games against bad teams, but they don’t have the offensive personnel to keep pace with high scoring-teams. Dallas was limited to a season-low 17 points when they visited Minnesota last week, but they should have more success against the Giants, who just lost Jason Pierre-Paul for the rest of the season. Between Ezekiel Elliott and Eli Manning’s struggles, the Giants will have little chance to come back if they fall into any type of hole.

Baltimore Ravens (+7)

It was once considered a fait accompli that the New England Patriots would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but that is no longer the case. The injury to Rob Gronkowski and an overrated defense make the Patriots much less dangerous, and they could potentially be upset at home by the Ravens.

Baltimore usually plays New England well. They’ve split their last four head-to-head matchups, and the Patriots have beaten the Ravens by more than a touchdown just once in their last nine meetings. Without Gronkowski in the last two games, Tom Brady has failed to post a passer rating better than 93.5, and he could have his worst game of the season when facing the NFL’s top-ranked defense. The Ravens have allowed 14 or fewer points in four of their last five games, and even if the Patriots win, they’ll have trouble doing so in an easy fashion.

Season Record: 33-30-2