NFL Picks 2016: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 16

Many of the games on the Week 16 schedule feature a team that’s competing for a playoff berth against one that has no chance to reach the postseason. That could result in more contests than usual being not very competitive.

According to the latest betting odds at Las Vegas sportsbooks, the New York Giants are road favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles, who won’t be playing beyond Week 17. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are underdogs against the New Orleans Saints, even though New Orleans has nothing to play for. As the Houston Texans fight for the AFC South title, they are one-point favorites over the five-win Cincinnati Bengals.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets for Week 16 of the 2016 NFL season:

New York Giants (-2.5)

More than half of this year’s Thursday night games have been blowouts, and the Week 16 contest has all the makings of a one-sided affair. New York is the NFL’s hottest team and still looking to secure a playoff spot, while Philadelphia has just one win in two months with nothing to play for.

The Giants’ defense might be the NFL’s best, and it seemingly gets better every week. Having won eight of their last nine games, New York has allowed 15.8 points per contest. Philadelphia’s offense has stalled since the season’s first month, and Carson Wentz is playing like the rookie that he is. The quarterback hasn’t posted a passer rating of better than 86.7 since Oct. 30, and he’ll struggle against an elite pass defense. Combine that with the fact that the Giants are third in opponents’ yards per carry, and it should be a long night for Philadelphia’s offense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

Just because Tampa Bay’s five-game winning streak is over doesn’t mean they aren’t playing better than most teams in the NFC. After losing by one score to the conference’s No.1 seed, the Buccaneers have a good chance to upset the Saints in New Orleans.

New Orleans has been inconsistent all season long, especially on offense. The Saints score 29 points per game on the season, but they’ve struggled against good defenses, including an 11-point performance against the Bucs in Week 14. New Orleans has picked up back-to-back wins just once in 2016, and those victories came by four total points. Tampa Bay has scored at least 28 points in each of their four games against bottom-seven scoring defenses, and Jameis Winston and Co. should have a big day against the Saints, who’ve allowed more points than 29 other teams.

Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

Aaron Rodgers is back to playing like an MVP candidate, and that could mean big problems for the Minnesota Vikings. After losing in Minnesota earlier this season, Green Bay should be able to get some revenge Saturday.

The Packers’ offense appears to be back on track, averaging 29 points during their four-game winning streak. Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception since Nov. 13, and the emergence of Ty Montgomery as the team’s No.1 running back has been key. Minnesota simply can’t score, and if Green Bay manages to score more than 20 points, this game could be over.

Houston Texans (-1)

Even with the worst quarterback that’s started every week this season, the Texans have managed to go 8-6 and sit atop the AFC South. After making a change at quarterback, Houston should be able to defeat the Bengals, who are very much out of playoff contention.

It’s unknown how good Tom Savage could be, but it’s hard to believe he’ll be worse than Brock Osweiler. Savage played pretty well in a win against Jacksonville last week, and he won’t have to put up monster numbers against Cincinnati. The Bengals just find ways to lose against good teams, and they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record in their last 11 tries. Houston has just one loss at NRG Stadium, and their No.1 ranked defense should help them defeat one of the NFL’s most disappointing teams of 2016.

Baltimore Ravens (+5.5)

The Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers almost always play close games, and their Christmas Day contest should be no different. Baltimore might not win at Heinz Field, but they should be able to cover the 5.5-point betting line.

The Ravens have won six of their last seven contests against the Steelers, including a 21-14 victory on Nov. 6. In their last 17 matchups, Baltimore has lost to Pittsburgh by more than a field goal just twice. With the league’s No.5 ranked defense, the Ravens have a strong chance to contain a Steelers offense that has underachieved by certain standards. Even with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh hasn’t scored more than 28 points during their five-game winning streak. Making sure the Steelers don’t score at will should give the Ravens a chance to steal a victory in the fourth quarter.