NFL Picks 2017: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 1

A few point spreads stand out among the rest when looking at the latest Las Vegas betting odds for the year’s first slate of NFL games. Only four teams are favored by at least six points, and nearly half the betting lines are three points or less.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season:

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

The betting line would have you believe that the Baltimore Ravens are the better team, but the Bengals could finish the season well ahead of their divisional rivals in the AFC North. It starts in Week 1 when Cincinnati has a good chance to start the season with a win at home.

The Bengals should bounce back from a down 2016 campaign that was disrupted by injuries to the team’s top playmakers, as well as a difficult schedule. Only one of Cincinnati’s losses came against a team that had a losing record, and Baltimore might be under .500 for much of 2017. The Ravens’ defense could finish in the top 10, especially after adding to that side of the ball in the draft, but they won’t have the offensive firepower to compete with teams that can score points in a hurry on most nights.

Joe Flacco has consistently been a bottom-tier starting quarterback since winning the Super Bowl five years ago, and he won’t be any better after missing all of the preseason.

Houston Texans (-5)

Blake Bortles vs. Tom Savage—it’s one of a few Week 1 quarterback matchups that leave a lot to be desired. Both players might be out of a starting job in just a matter of weeks, but the one that’s facing the AFC’s best defense Sunday could be in for a disastrous season opener.

Bortles barely beat out Chad Henne in the preseason to remain the Jacksonville Jaguars’ No.1 quarterback, and his job security won’t improve after facing the likes of J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus in Houston. Bortles is prone to making mistakes with 51 interceptions in his three NFL seasons, and he could throw the Jaguars out of contention in this game pretty quickly. Savage won’t make any big plays, but at least he wasn’t picked off in any of his 73 pass attempts last year.

The Texans have beat the Jaguars six straight times, always doing so with a below average quarterback. There’s little reason to think they won’t keep the streak going in Week 1.

Los Angeles Rams (-4)

This is more of a pick against the Indianapolis Colts than it is one for the Rams. With a healthy Andrew Luck, the Colts are probably the third-best team in the AFC South. With Scott Tolzien at quarterback, only the New York Jets might be worse than Indianapolis.

After ranking 30th in total defense a year ago, the Colts’ defense should only be slightly improved, meaning they’ll have to get above-average quarterback play in order to win most games. Indianapolis went 1-5 last year when Luck failed to post a 90.0 passer rating, and it’s a pretty safe bet that Tolzien won’t reach that number. The journeyman still hasn’t won an NFL start since going undrafted in 2011, and this might be the only time L.A. will have a distinct advantage under center.

Jared Goff looked good in the preseason, and he shouldn’t be overmatched like he was as a rookie. He’s got some weapons in Sammy Watkins and Todd Gurley, who can do damage against the Colts in Week 1.

New York Giants (+4)

There’s definitely value in the Giants as four-point road underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys, whom New York has fared well against in recent years. The Giants have won three straight games against the defending NFC East champs, and they haven’t lost to Dallas by more than a field goal since the first half of the 2014 season.

Even with Odell Beckham Jr.’s status up in the air, New York’s defense will keep them in Sunday night’s game with a chance to pull off the upset. With two Pro Bowlers in the secondary and one of the league’s best defensive lines, it might be the best unit in the NFL. Most importantly, it has what it takes to combat Dallas’ outstanding offensive line and running game, which it did twice last year.

New York’s offensive line will be a major question all year, but it could hold up just enough against a Dallas defense that has a below-average front seven.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3)

After dealing with major injuries in each of the last two seasons, the Chargers are one of the most popular picks to be much improved in 2017. Maybe they won’t make a deep playoff run like some have suggested, but they’ve got a real chance to finish ahead of the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.

Denver is understandably favored in the final game of Week 1, though they could take a significant step back this year. The defense might not be what it was in 2015 and 2016 now that defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is gone, and starting linebacker Shane Ray will start the year on injured reserve. Relying at all on an offense that has Trevor Siemian taking snaps behind a questionable offensive line won’t bode well for the Broncos.

Defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could make life miserable for Denver’s quarterback. The Chargers can win their first regular-season game since moving to L.A. if Philip Rivers avoids throwing costly interceptions like he did a year ago.