NFL Picks 2017: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 3

More than half of the road teams are favored, according to the Week 3 Las Vegas betting odds. Six of those teams are undefeated, and five are laying exactly three points.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 3 of the 2017 NFL season:

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Baltimore might not be a bad pick if Sunday’s game against the Jaguars was being played in Jacksonville. Considering it’s on a neutral field in London, the Ravens are a safe bet to win and cover the 3.5-point spread against what is still the worst team in the AFC South.

The Ravens have to prove that they can compete with the league’s top teams. We know they can shut down bad offenses, having already done so against the Bengals and Browns. That’s enough evidence to assume that they’ll dominate the Jaguars’ offense. Baltimore kept Andy Dalton to a 28.4 passer rating and the combination of DeShone Kizer and Kevin Hogan to a 39.9 rating. Blake Bortles isn’t any better than those quarterbacks. He was picked off three times in a loss at home against the Ravens in 2016, and the same could happen when he faces a unit that’s allowed just 10 total points while forcing quarterbacks to commit 10 turnovers in two games.

Scoring points is a concern with the Ravens, but their No.3 ranked rushing offense could have its way with Jacksonville's No.29 rushing defense.

Detroit Lions (+3)

The Lions would prove that they are a real contender by beating the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3. Playing at home with a much-improved defense, Detroit could very well do just that.

Detroit’s defense won’t look as good as it did in Week 1 and Week 2 when they faced aging quarterbacks. Still, they can give Matt Ryan more trouble than the Packers or Bears did. Only three teams have given up fewer rushing yards than the Lions, even though they were forced to stop a healthy David Johnson. The gap between Ryan and Matthew Stafford is probably a lot smaller than people think, and the league’s highest-paid quarterback could outduel the reigning MVP when he takes on an Atlanta defense that’s without Vic Beasley.

The Falcons were one dropped pass away from losing the season opener in Chicago. They might not be so lucky on the road against a playoff team from last year.

Buffalo Bills (+3)

The Denver Broncos have kept pace with the Raiders and Chiefs, who were supposed to be the class of the AFC West, winning their first two games. Let’s see if they can keep up when they have to travel across the country and play their first road game of 2017.

Maybe Trevor Siemian is improved after a mediocre first year as Denver’s starting quarterback, but he definitely isn’t this good. He’s tied for first in the NFL with six touchdown passes, having recorded a 106.9 passer rating against the Chargers and Cowboys. Playing in Buffalo will be Siemian’s toughest test yet. The Bills haven’t exactly faced scoring machines, but they’ve been impressive nonetheless, ranking second in total defense and keeping the Panthers out of the end zone.

Denver’s run defense will also come back to earth after ranking 28th in that department a year ago. LeSean McCoy should be much better than Ezekiel Elliott was last week.

Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Playing the Seahawks is much different than facing the Jaguars, who the Tennessee Titans blew out in Week 2. Oakland beat Tennessee 26-16 in the season opener, and Sunday could be another home loss for the AFC South favorites.

As bad as Seattle’s offense has been, their defense almost has them at 2-0. Before keeping the 49ers out of the end zone last week, the Seahawks might have won at Lambeau Field had an interception return for a touchdown not been called back by a questionable penalty. Seattle made Aaron Rodgers look pedestrian for much of the season opener, and Marcus Mariota will struggle after getting off to a slow start in 2017. Carlos Hyde had good numbers on the ground against the Seahawks last week, though half of his yards came from one big run. Tennessee will be lucky to score 20 points against an elite defense as they deal with injuries to wide receiver Corey Davis and running back DeMarco Murray.

The Seahawks had their chances to put up points in Week 2, settling for field goals on two of their three trips inside the red zone. The Titans have just four sacks through two weeks, and without much of a pass rush, Russell Wilson should have enough time to give Seattle their highest-scoring game of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Good teams like the Chiefs find ways to win games. Bad teams like the Los Angeles Chargers find ways to lose games. Both of those add up to a victory for Kansas City in L.A. Sunday.

The Chiefs have a real claim to be considered the NFL’s best team. They’ve already won on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions and at home against a good Philadelphia Eagles team. Alex Smith has more weapons than he’s ever had before with a top-two tight end (Travis Kelce), the best running back through two weeks (Kareem Hunt) and a big play receiver (Tyreek Hill). Smith could put up big numbers against a pass defense that’s surrendered passer ratings of 94.2 and 101.8. After the Chargers gave up 139 rushing yards to the Broncos in Week 1 and 122 rushing yards to Jay Ajayi in Week 2, Hunt is primed for a big day on the ground.

The Chargers don’t have any kind of home-field advantage at StubHub Center. It sounded like Miami fans outnumbered L.A. fans last week, and the Kansas City faithful might take over the building with the Chiefs in town.

Season Record: 2-7-1