NFL Picks 2017: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 4

Only three teams are favored by more than a touchdown, according to the Week 4 Las Vegas betting odds. Seven games feature a point spread of three points or less, and three teams are underdogs in their home stadiums.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season:

Baltimore Ravens (+3)

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t won in Baltimore since 2012. It’s been nine years since they won at M&T Bank Stadium by more than a field goal, and the Ravens aren’t going to let their No.1 rivals embarrass them at home in Week 4.

We haven’t seen the Steelers' team that was supposed to be the biggest threat to the Patriots because of their elite offense. Even with some of the best offensive line play in the NFL, Pittsburgh is in the middle of the pack with 21.3 points per game while ranking 22nd in yards per game. Things only get more difficult against the Ravens, who should be focused after a bad performance against the Jaguars. Blake Bortles played the game of his life and Joe Flacco was the week’s worst quarterback. Flacco just needs to be competent to give Baltimore a chance against the Steelers.

Pittsburgh won by a field goal in Cleveland and was defeated by the Bears in Chicago. Facing their toughest road challenge yet might not work out in the Steelers’ favor.

Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)

The Falcons are clearly the best team in the NFC with a 3-0 record. Despite the Buffalo Bills’ 2-1 record, it isn’t as clear that they are a real playoff contender in the AFC. Atlanta should win big when Buffalo finally visits a good offensive team.

After getting off to somewhat of a slow start with 23 points in Week 1, the Falcons have scored 64 points in the last two games. They managed to put up 30 points in Detroit, even with Matt Ryan uncharacteristically throwing three interceptions. Holding the Broncos, Jets and Panthers below 20 points is one thing. Doing it on the road against the reigning MVP will prove to be a much more difficult task for Buffalo.

If Atlanta’s offense plays like it usually does at home, the Bills have no chance to keep up. The Falcons rank 11th in opponents’ passer rating, even after facing both Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. Tyrod Taylor has thrown for less than 225 yards in each game, and that’s not the way to give yourself a chance to beat the defending NFC champs.

New York Giants (+3)

It’s easy to forget that the Giants went 11-5 in 2016 with basically the same team. Coming off their best offensive performance in nine games, New York has a real chance to finally get a win and beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay.

New York has been criticized, and fairly, for not upgrading the offensive line. Most of the team’s resources have been spent on defense. That’s the same defense that ranked second in points allowed a year ago and helped the Giants win six games in which they scored 20 points or fewer. Mike Evans didn’t make much of an impact last week against Xavier Rhodes, and he could have another slow day against a now-healthy Janoris Jenkins. Jameis Winston still hasn’t proven to be any better than an average quarterback, and he routinely makes questionable throws. New York’s secondary will come away with multiple interceptions if Winston isn’t careful.

Don’t overlook the fact that the Giants scored 24 points in the fourth quarter. Quick throws and Odell Beckham helped make up for New York’s offensive line woes, and Tampa Bay has the fewest sacks in the NFL.

Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Laying less than a field goal at home, Denver is an easy pick in Week 4. The Oakland Raiders showed that they aren’t quite ready for some of the praise that was being thrown their way prior to getting blown out in Washington, and the team's offense will struggle for a second straight week.

Oakland is almost certain to play better than they did against the Redskins, considering they totaled just 128 yards of offense. The Broncos are fourth in the NFL, surrendering just 263 yards per game. Aftef limiting Philip Rivers to 192 passing yards and Dak Prescott to a 68.6 passer rating at home, the Broncos won’t let Carr have a big day in Denver. Marshawn Lynch could also be held in check as he faces the league’s No.1 rush defense.

Trevor Siemian has played well at home this season, and he’ll bounce back after throwing two interceptions in Buffalo that cost the Broncos a chance to remain perfect on the season. If the Raiders can’t get consistent pressure on the quarterback, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will both put up big numbers.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

The Patriots are rightfully still favored to win the Super Bowl with Bill Belichick on the sidelines and Tom Brady under center. New England, however, isn’t the most complete team in football at the moment. That distinction belongs to the Chiefs, and they’ll prove it, once again, when they host the Redskins Monday night.

Ranking third in total offense, Kansas City’s early success might not be much of an aberration. Even if you still rank players like Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott ahead of Kareem Hunt, there’s no denying that the rookie is an elite running back. Rob Gronkowski is the only tight end better than Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill is a playmaker unlike any other with five 65-plus yard touchdowns since Week 14 of last year. Washington’s defense won’t come remotely close to doing what it did a week ago.

The same goes for Kirk Cousins, who was nearly perfect in Week 3. The Chiefs have forced all three quarterbacks they’ve faced to have the worst games of their respective seasons. Cousins will look much more like the quarterback that had a 72.9 passer rating in Washington’s only loss of the year.

Season Record: 4-10-1