NFL Picks 2017: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 8

As the NFL approaches the halfway point of the season, teams with high expectations are finally recovering from their slow starts. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are looking like the Super Bowl contenders they were predicted to be, and the Seattle Seahawks are back to being among the top teams in the NFC. All three are favored, according to the Week 8 Las Vegas betting odds.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 8 of the 2017 NFL season:

Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)

For whatever reason, none of this year’s three London games have been close. They’ve all been decided by at least 20 points, and the last two featured shutouts. Minnesota could very well blow out the Cleveland Browns Sunday morning.

Cleveland is an absolute mess. The Browns have just one win since the start of last season, and head coach Hue Jackson might be out of a job if the team loses to the Vikings. DeShone Kizer will get the start, even though he’s the worst starting quarterback in football and has been benched multiple times because of it. Cleveland will be lucky to score more than one touchdown against a team that hasn’t surrendered more than 17 points in a game since Week 2.

Minnesota doesn’t need great quarterback play to win. The Vikings have been dominant when facing below-average quarterbacks like Brett Hundley and Joe Flacco, and they’ve used a top-10 rushing attack to score enough points to win comfortably.

Washington Redskins (+2)

With Dallas favored in Washington, the betting line indicates that the Cowboys are five points better than the Redskins on a neutral field. That’s hard to believe after watching both teams go 3-3 through the first seven weeks of the season.

Washington still doesn’t have a bad loss on their resume. They’ve been defeated twice by the Philadelphia Eagles, who have the best record in football, and they have a close road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, who are tied with the AFC’s best record. Sure, Dallas looked terrific in their Week 7 win over the San Francisco 49ers, but the Cowboys defeated a team that hasn’t won a game all season long. They’ve still got plenty of issues on defense, which will be exploited by Kirk Cousins and Washington’s offense.

The Redskins have impressive wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Oakland Raiders. Dallas has surrendered at least 35 points in all three of their losses. The Cowboys could have trouble keeping the NFC’s highest-rated passer below 30 points in this one.

Chicago Bears (+9)

Chicago is exceeding expectations in 2017, winning games with defense and one of the league’s best rushing attacks. Maybe the Bears won’t upset the New Orleans Saints on the road, but they should be competitive for most of the 60 minutes.

The Bears’ defense kept them in the season opener against the Atlanta Falcons, and it was the impetus for their victories over the Steelers and Panthers. The team was blown out twice when Mike Glennon kept turning the ball over, and they’ve nearly won three straight games since the quarterback was benched. Head coach John Fox knows Mitchell Trubisky isn’t ready to win games by himself, and he’s relying on the NFL’s best tandem of running backs to give Chicago a chance to beat some good teams. New Orleans is 30th in the league, allowing opposing running backs to average 4.9 yards per carry.

As well as the Saints have played, Drew Brees and the offense didn’t exactly light it up against top defenses like the Dolphins and Vikings. It could be a close, low-scoring game in the Superdome.

Seattle Seahawks (+5.5)

After some early-season struggles, the Seahawks are back to being what they’ve been each year since 2012—one of the best teams in the NFC. The Houston Texans will have a hard time winning in the stadium that might be the most difficult for any opposing team to visit.

Expecting Deshaun Watson to continue playing like an MVP candidate in Seattle is unrealistic. As well as he’s performed, the rookie has taken advantage of some bad defenses. Watson has put up big numbers against the Patriots (32nd against the pass), Chiefs (28th against the pass), Titans (18th against the pass) and Browns (15th against the pass). The quarterback completed just 27 of 47 passes for 227 yards combined against Jacksonville and Cincinnati’s top-three pass defenses. Watson isn’t going to have much success against Seattle’s vaunted secondary on the road.

Perhaps at the beginning of the year, the Texans could’ve won a low-scoring game against the Seahawks. That won’t happen in Week 8, now that J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus are done for the season. Seattle’s offense has finally gotten on track with Russell Wilson posting passer ratings of at least 107.5 in three of the last four games.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

The Steelers are arguably the best team in the AFC. The Detroit Lions are the third-best team in their division when Aaron Rodgers is healthy. Pittsburgh should be able to win by at least a field goal in Detroit.

There’s little reason to believe the Lions will be able to move the ball much on “Sunday Night Football.” The Steelers give up the fewest yards per play in football, and only two teams in the entire league gain fewer yards per play on offense than the Lions. Pittsburgh hasn’t given up more than 18 points in regulation all season long, and Detroit is 0-2 at home against teams that currently sit at .500 or better.

Detroit’s defense gave up at least 27 points in both of those losses. With Ben Roethlisberger coming off his best game of the season and Le’Veon Bell looking like the NFL’s best running back, it could be a long night for the Lions.