NFL Picks 2017: Week 13 Best Bets Against The Spread

More than half of the NFL’s division leaders are road favorites on the upcoming schedule, according to the Week 13 Las Vegas betting odds. The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles are favored against teams that are over .500, while the Kansas City Chiefs are favored amidst their recent struggles.

Will those teams be able to cover the spread? Here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 13 of the 2017 NFL season:

Minnesota Vikings (+3)

Minnesota visits the Atlanta Falcons in what’s unquestionably the best game of Week 13. The Vikings are in the driver’s seat to get a first-round playoff bye, and the defending champions are playing their best football of the season.

The NFC North leaders have appeared to be in a class ahead of Atlanta this season, and a win on the road Sunday would cement their position as one of the Super Bowl favorites. Minnesota has had one of the league’s best defenses for the last couple of years, and their offense appears to finally be catching up. With Case Keenum actually playing like a top-10 quarterback, the Vikings have scored at least 20 points in each game during their seven-game winning streak, including an average of 31 points over their last four contests. Adam Thielen is the NFL’s No.2 receiver, and he could have a big day with cornerback Desmond Trufant still in concussion protocol.

Even though the Falcons’ offense has looked similar to the one that led the NFL in 2016, the unit will have a tough time repeating that success against the Vikings. Minnesota is fifth in points allowed, and they’ve surrendered fewer than 20 points on eight occasions. Atlanta is 0-4 when scoring fewer than 20 points in 2017.

New England Patriots (-8.5)

The defending Super Bowl champs continue to roll after starting the year 2-2. They’ve won seven straight games, and a road game against the Buffalo Bills shouldn’t slow them down one bit.

New England has somehow gone from having the league’s worst defense to allowing the fewest points in the NFL since Week 5. No team has scored more than 17 points against the Patriots during that time. The odds that it’ll be the Bills—they rank 26th in total offense—who finally end that streak are unlikely.

Even if Buffalo manages to have a strong offensive performance, they still have to slow down Tom Brady in the midst of yet another MVP-caliber season. The quarterback has totaled 10 touchdowns and one interception as New England has scored at least 33 points in each of the last three games. Before beating the struggling Chiefs 16-10 in Week 12, the Bills had allowed 135 total points in their previous three contests.

New York Jets (+3.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by more than a field goal on the road, despite looking nothing like a playoff team over their last six games. New York isn’t a threat to reach the postseason, but they’ve got a legitimate chance to hand Kansas City their sixth loss in seven tries.

The dominant offense that led Kansas City to a win over New England in the season opener and a 5-0 start is no longer what it was. The Chiefs have scored 17 points, nine points and 10 points in their last three games, respectively, with Alex Smith looking like the quarterback that forced Kansas City to draft Patrick Mahomes in the first round. Smith is averaging 6.15 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and four interceptions in the last four games.

New York has been competitive in every home game, going 3-3 with two victories over teams that have winning records. They haven’t been beaten by more than a score at MetLife Stadium, and that includes games with the Patriots, Falcons and Panthers.

Los Angeles Chargers (-14)

Laying two touchdowns should never be a comfortable feeling for a gambler. That is, unless, you’re doing so against the Cleveland Browns, who continue to look like one of the worst NFL teams in recent memory.

After losing 30-16 to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12, the Browns are up to 11 straight losses in 2017 and 26 defeats in 27 games since the start of last season. Cleveland hasn’t even lost by single digits since Week 7. They’ve been held to fewer than 20 points nine times, and they’ll be going on the road to face a Chargers’ team that’s allowing an average of 15.6 points over their last seven games. Despite the injuries to various starting quarterbacks around the league, DeShone Kizer’s 57.2 passer rating is still the worst in the league by a mile.

The only concern might be that the Chargers are the only team that lost to the Browns in 2016. That concern should be trumped by the fact that Cleveland has covered the spread just once in the last 10 games, per OddsShark.

Seattle Seahawks (+6)

The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC. The Seahawks might very well miss the playoffs for the first time since 2012. That doesn’t mean Seattle should be a six-point underdog at CenturyLink Field, where they have maybe the biggest home-field advantage in football.

It’s unheard of for any visiting team to be favored at all, let alone by nearly a touchdown, in Seattle. The Seahawks haven't been a home underdog since Oct. 14, 2012 when they beat the New England Patriots. The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the Falcons in their last home game, though they were only defeated by a field goal. Since the start of the 2015 season, Seattle has lost at home by more than six points once, and that defeat came by just seven points.

Don’t be stunned if Seattle manages to pull off the upset and win outright. Philadelphia has just one win against a team that currently sits above .500. Russell Wilson is doing his best to make up for an injured secondary, ranking third in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.