NFL Picks 2017: Week 14 Best Bets Against The Spread

Don’t be surprised if several road favorites win big on the upcoming NFL schedule. The New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings are both favored away from home, according to the Week 14 Las Vegas betting odds, as are the Green Bay Packers.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 14 of the 2017 NFL season:

Atlanta Falcons (PK)

The Falcons host the New Orleans Saints in what might be the best “Thursday Night Football” game of the season. The defending NFC South champs can make it a legitimate three-team race among themselves, New Orleans and Carolina with a win over the Saints.

New Orleans has been the better team in 2017, but Atlanta should probably still be favored at home. Their offense has gotten back on track—last week’s loss to Minnesota notwithstanding—since struggling early in the season. The Falcons have scored at least 27 points in three of their last four games and Matt Ryan has posted a passer rating better than 95.0 in six of the last seven games.

The Saints’ defense is coming back to earth a bit, allowing 26 points per game over the last three weeks. In what will probably be a shootout that’s determined in the fourth quarter, the Falcons have the edge at home.

Green Bay Packers (-3)

The Cleveland Browns flirted with a winless season in 2016, and they’re doing it again in 2017. For the second straight year, Cleveland doesn’t have a victory entering Week 14. It’s difficult not to pick against them when all Green Bay has to do is win by a field goal to cover the spread.

Cleveland didn’t come much closer to winning in Week 13, losing 19-10 to the Los Angeles Chargers. Their offense continues to be the most inept in all of football, led by DeShone Kizer and his league-worst 58.1 passer rating. The quarterback has six touchdown passes and 15 interceptions, and the Browns are dead last with 14.7 points per game. Cleveland has scored more than 17 points just once since Week 4.

As much as Green Bay has struggled without Aaron Rodgers, they’ve held their own against bad teams. The Packers have defeated both the Bears and Bucs behind Brett Hundley, scoring at least 23 points in three of their last four games. Cleveland isn’t winning if Green Bay reaches that number Sunday.

New York Giants (+4)

Sunday could end up being the highlight of what’s been a miserable year for the Giants. Following the firings of head coach Ben McAdoo and general manager Jerry Reese, Eli Manning was renamed the starting quarterback. Maybe he has one more memorable moment as a Giant left in him when the team hosts the Dallas Cowboys.

Manning and the Giants won’t score a ton of points against Dallas, but they probably won’t have to in order to keep this game close. New York’s defense still has plenty of talent, and they’ll be facing a Cowboys’ offense that’s been lost since Ezekiel Elliott began serving his suspension. Dallas broke a three-game streak of scoring in single digits by putting up 38 points against the Redskins in Week 13, but they were aided by four Washington turnovers.

Dak Prescott only completed half of his passes for 102 yards last week. He hasn’t even reached the 180-yard mark with Elliott away from the team. The quarterback might not be able to make enough plays for the Cowboys to win this one comfortably.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Betting against the 8-4 Carolina Panthers as home underdogs doesn’t sound like the wisest decision until you realize that they are facing the best team in the NFC. Minnesota moved up to the No.1 seed with their win against the Falcons in Week 13, and they are playing better football than anyone in the conference.

By just about every measure, the Vikings have been the NFC’s top team for 13 weeks. They have the best defense, which has allowed 17 points or fewer in eight of the last 10 games. Maybe you don’t believe that Case Keenum will continue to play like a fringe MVP candidate, but there’s no denying that the quarterback is vastly improved from previous seasons. Keenum is making big plays to go along with his 98.6 passer rating, giving the Vikings a top-five offense.

Minnesota has wins over the Saints, Rams and Falcons, all of whom could be headed to the postseason. Carolina’s offense has come up short when facing elite defenses. The Vikings are the smart pick now that the betting line has dipped below three points.

New England Patriots (-11)

The only team that’s looked better than the Vikings since Week 5 is the Patriots. New England is, once again, the team to beat, and they shouldn’t have any problems with the Miami Dolphins on “Monday Night Football.”

New England leads the NFL in total offense behind Tom Brady, who’s having another MVP season. The team’s defensive struggles over the first four weeks are now a distant memory, considering the Patriots have surrendered the fewest points in football since Week 5. New England has won each of their last four games by at least 18 points—they beat Miami 35-17 in Week 12—and four of their last five wins over the Dolphins have come by 18 points or more.

Miami was only able to end their five-game losing streak in Week 13 because they faced a team that last won a game in Week 4. Not including their win over the Marcus Mariota-less Titans in Week 5, the Dolphins are 0-4 against current playoff teams. Miami lost all four of those games by at least 18 points.