NFL Picks 2017: Week 15 Best Bets Against The Spread

A few teams that need big wins to stay in the playoff picture are home favorites, according to the Week 15 Las Vegas betting odds. The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks are favored against good teams, while the Kansas City Chiefs are no longer underdogs like they were at the start of the week.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 15 of the 2017 NFL season:

Los Angeles Chargers (PK)

The Chargers and Chiefs have been heading in opposite directions for the last two months. Their battle for the AFC West will culminate with Saturday’s showdown when L.A. finally passes Kansas City in the standings.

This isn’t the same Chargers’ team that lost at home to the Chiefs in Week 3. Since being picked off three times in that game, Philip Rivers has played like an MVP candidate with 19 touchdown passes and three interceptions. L.A.’s defense has proven to be one of the NFL’s best, allowing more points than only Jacksonville. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have combined for 20.5 sacks, while cornerback Casey Hayward might be the Defensive Player of the Year with four interceptions and 19 passes defensed.

The Chiefs have gone the other way, losing six of their last eight games after playing like the best team in football. Defenses have figured out Alex Smith and Kansas City’s offense, and Kareem Hunt has disappeared in the second half of the season. Even when the Chiefs were winning, they couldn’t stop anyone. They’ve never recovered from losing Eric Berry in the season opener, ranking 25th in yards allowed per play.

Carolina Panthers (-3)

Believe Aaron Rodgers when he says he’s not coming back to "save" the Green Bay Packers. The team is still a long shot to make the playoffs, and their postseason hopes could end with a loss in Carolina.

Going on the road against one of the conference’s best teams in his first game back since Oct. 15 won’t be easy. The Panthers are coming off a big win against the Vikings, who were the NFC’s No.1 seed until they visited Carolina. The Panthers are tied for the conference lead with 40 sacks on the year, and they rank fifth overall in total defense.

Green Bay was far from unbeatable when Rodgers was healthy, losing comfortably in a visit to Atlanta and needing overtime to defeat Cincinnati at home. The Packers are 29th in opponents’ passer rating, and they’ve held just three opponents to fewer than 20 points.

Baltimore Ravens (-7)

If the Cleveland Browns hope to avoid a winless season, they’ll have to beat Chicago in Week 16. They aren’t beating Baltimore in Week 15 as they continue to find new ways to lose games.

Baltimore isn’t currently in the playoffs, but that should change by the end of the regular season. The Ravens are playing their best football of the season, losing on a last-second field goal in Pittsburgh a week ago to snap their three-game winning streak. They’ve got just one loss to a losing team, and all seven of Baltimore’s wins have come by at least a touchdown. The rest of their victories have come by 14 points or more, including a 24-10 win against the Browns.

Josh Gordon could put up some big numbers with cornerback Jimmy Smith sidelined, but it won’t be enough to make up for the mistakes of DeShone Kizer. The quarterback was picked off twice last week to add to his league-leading total, and Baltimore ranks second with 29 takeaways.

Los Angeles Rams (+2)

Sunday’s game could unofficially mark the end of an era in Seattle. The Seahawks have been the dominant force in the NFC West since Russell Wilson came into the league in 2012, and the Rams have a chance to all but clinch the division title with a win at CenturyLink Field.

This is not the same Seattle team that’s won a playoff game in each of the last five years. Russell Wilson has done his best to make plays without a ton of help, but he can only do so much with a bad offensive line and no running back that’s even rushed for 300 yards this season. The Seahawks’ defense is the real issue now that Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor are out for the year. The pass rush hasn’t been there for Seattle like it has in recent years, and that will spell trouble against Los Angeles.

It’s been clear for a while that the Rams are for real. Only Philadelphia scores more points per game, and Todd Gurley has been the NFC’s best running back. Jared Goff should play much better than he did against Seattle when a healthier Seahawks’ team won 16-10 in L.A. earlier this year.

New England Patriots (-3)

It doesn’t matter that the Pittsburgh Steelers have a better record than the Patriots. New England is still the best team in the conference, and they seem to always beat Pittsburgh when it matters most. That trend should continue with home-field advantage in the playoffs on the line at Heinz Field.

The Patriots are 10-2 against the Steelers when Tom Brady starts under Bill Belichick, including four straight wins by an average of 15 points. Last week’s misstep against Miami notwithstanding, New England has been playing just about as well as they have at any point over the last few years. The defense didn’t give up more than 17 points once from Week 5 to Week 13, and the team ranks second in total offense. Tom Brady is the league’s top MVP candidate, leading all quarterbacks in passing yards and passer rating.

Pittsburgh’s defense gives them a better chance than usual to upset New England, but the unit suffered a major blow with the injury to Ryan Shazier. The Steelers allowed 38 points in the first game that the linebacker missed, and things get much more difficult against the Patriots.