NFL Picks 2017: Week 16 Best Bets Against The Spread

With some of the NFL’s best teams facing opponents in Week 16 that won’t make the playoffs, the upcoming schedule could feature several one-sided contests. According to the latest Las Vegas betting odds, 10 teams are favored by more than six points.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 16 of the 2017 NFL season:

Minnesota Vikings (-9)

This has all the makings of a blowout. Minnesota is the NFC’s No.2 seed with eyes on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Green Bay Packers don’t have anything to play for now that they’ve been eliminated from the playoff picture, and they’ve got very little chance to win without Aaron Rodgers.

Minnesota has taken care of business against the easiest part of their schedule all year. Their three losses have come to teams with a combined 29-13 record. After beating the Cincinnati Bengals 34-7 last week, the Vikings have won by an average of 16.3 points in their last four meetings with teams that are out of contention. That includes a 23-10 win over the Packers in the game during which Rodgers suffered his injury.

Brett Hundley had a couple of good starts before Rodgers made his one week return, but he’s in trouble Saturday night. Davante Adams, Green Bay’s leading receiver, won’t play because of a concussion. Hundley has posted a passer rating worse than 50.0 four times in 2017, including when he was picked off three times by Minnesota’s No.2 ranked defense.

Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Don’t let the two games in the NFL standings that separate the Rams and Tennessee Titans fool you. L.A. is the significantly better team. The Rams are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and Tennessee is on their way toward missing the playoffs.

The Titans could end the season as one of the league’s most disappointing teams. They’ve lost two straight games against teams that won’t be in the playoffs. Marcus Mariota has taken a big step back this season with more interceptions than touchdown passes, and that’s going to be an issue against the NFL’s No.1 scoring team. The Rams have put up more than 30 points in six of their last eight games, while the Titans haven’t scored more than 24 points in any game during that time.

Los Angeles has a habit of blowing teams out, even on the road. They just beat the Seahawks 42-7 in Seattle, and they’ve won by double-digits four times outside of L.A.

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)

It was just two weeks ago that the Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints to stay in the NFC South race. Even with Atlanta going on the road, the defending conference champions have a chance to defeat the Saints, once again.

With two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks going head-to-head, this should be a close, high-scoring game. The 20-17 final in Week 14 was an anomaly as Alvin Kamara left the game early with a concussion and Matt Ryan was picked off three times. It’s hard to believe last year’s MVP will throw three more interceptions Sunday. New Orleans’ secondary took a hit this week when the team put starting safety Kenny Vaccaro on injured reserve with multiple injuries.

New Orleans might be the better team, but they shouldn’t be favored by nearly six points. The Falcons haven’t lost by more than five points since they visited New England two months ago, and they’ve looked like a much better team since then. It was the only time Atlanta lost by more than a score in 2017.

New England Patriots (-11.5)

Maybe the Buffalo Bills will finally make the playoffs for the first time since the 1999 season. If they do, it won’t be because they'll win in New England, where they haven’t had any success in the Brady-Belichick era.

The Bills have never beaten the Patriots on the road with Tom Brady under center for the entire game. That’s probably not going to change with New England needing a win to secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and Brady playing like the surefire MVP winner. The Patriots are 22-3 against the Bills in their last 25 meetings, and Buffalo’s last two victories came when Brady was suspended and New England had nothing to pay for in a Week 17 matchup.

New England had no trouble winning in western New York a few weeks ago, beating the Bills 23-3. Tyrod Taylor had one of his worst games of the year, and he probably won’t have much success against a team that’s allowed fewer than 15 points per game over the last 10 contests. Four of the Patriots’ last five wins have come by at least 18 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)

There’s a certain level of risk in laying nearly 10 points with a team that’s missing some key players. Linebacker Ryan Shazier is done for the year, and wide receiver Antonio Brown might not be back until the playoffs. That doesn’t mean Pittsburgh can’t win big on the road against the Houston Texans, who are one of the five worst teams in football.

Houston has simply been awful without Deshaun Watson. The Texans are 1-7 with any other quarterback under center. They’ve scored more than 16 points in just one of those contests, going 0-5 and losing by nearly 21 points per game against playoff teams. Houston doesn’t have a win on the road since winning in Cincinnati in Week 2.

Pittsburgh won’t have the NFL’s best wide receiver on Christmas Day, but they’ll still be able to rely on the league’s best running back. Le’Veon Bell is averaging 146.6 yards from scrimmage over his last 11 games, and he should put up big numbers against the NFL’s No.25 defense.