NFL Picks 2017: Week 5 Best Bets Against The Spread

A few teams that have played better than expected are being undervalued when it comes to the Week 5 Las Vegas betting odds. Teams like the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets aren’t favored, even though their upcoming opponent has two more losses, and five home teams with at least a .500 record are favored by fewer than three points.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 5 of the 2017 NFL season:

Buffalo Bills (+3)

With the Cincinnati Bengals favored by a field goal at home, the betting line indicates that Buffalo and Cincinnati are even on a neutral field. The Bills have easily been the better team through four weeks, making them an easy pick in Week 5.

Buffalo’s defense showed that they are the real deal with a win on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. Even before Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu got hurt, Matt Ryan had trouble moving the ball. Andy Dalton has bounced back with big games against bad Green Bay and Cleveland defenses. He was awful against good Baltimore and Houston defenses in Week 1 and Week 2. Dalton’s string of impressive games is likely to end when he faces a team that still hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game.

The Bills aren’t the best team in the AFC East, and they might not even finish the year with a record above .500. But with a strong defense and a quarterback that doesn’t make many mistakes, they’ve got a good chance to leave Cincinnati with a win.

New York Jets (PK)

The Jets might be the best of the NFL’s very bad teams. The Cleveland Browns have looked like the absolute worst team in the league. If the Browns aren’t underdogs, it’s probably safe to pick against them.

There’s plenty of blame to go around for Cleveland’s 0-4 record. No.1 overall draft pick Myles Garrett hasn’t played all year, hurting what was expected to be an improved defense. The Browns haven’t been able to run the ball effectively, ranking 27th in yards on the ground. But Cleveland’s biggest issue is at quarterback. DeShone Kizer wasn’t good in the preseason, and he’s been the NFL’s worst starter through four games. He ranks dead last with an atrocious 50.9 passer rating, throwing eight interceptions and averaging 5.38 yards per attempt. The Jets are seventh in pass defense, having played well against bad quarterbacks, and that should continue in Week 5.

New York has a competent defense, and Josh McCown has been good enough. With a decent running game, the Jets are outperforming what were incredibly low expectations.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

It’s only been four games, but the Eagles look like the best team in the NFC East. The Arizona Cardinals seem like the clear No.3 team in the NFC West, and they barely won at home against the NFC’s worst team last week. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles win this one running away.

Arizona simply isn’t the same offensive team that they were in recent years. Carson Palmer is well past his prime, and the lack of help around him is making him look even worse. He’s been hit more than any other quarterback, and it doesn’t help that the Cardinals’ running game has been nonexistent without David Johnson. Philadelphia’s front seven will put pressure on Palmer all game. Palmer can’t seem to help but make a few turnovers when he’s under constant duress. Carson Wentz hasn’t been picked off in two straight games.

The Cardinals have lost by double-digits in both of their games against potential playoff team. They needed overtime to beat the two teams on their schedule that could have top-five draft picks. Arizona might be lucky to keep Sunday’s game within a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys (-2)

The Green Bay Packers have won all three of their home games, going undefeated at Lambeau Field because they have the best quarterback in the NFC. They were defeated soundly the one time they went on the road against a team that can move the ball, and Sunday might provide a similar outcome.

Dallas should have one of their best offensive games of the season when they face Green Bay. The Packers had strong defensive performances against an awful Seattle Seahawks offensive line and Mike Glennon. When tested by Matt Ryan and even Andy Dalton, Green Bay’s secondary was exposed. Dak Prescott’s numbers aren’t as good as they were in 2016, but he’s played well outside of Week 2 in Denver when every Cowboy played poorly.

Green Bay should have success on offense, especially with their offensive line getting healthy. Dallas, however, is the right bet at home with the betting line under a field goal.

Houston Texans (PK)

The Kansas City Chiefs visit Houston as the clear best team in football, having gone 4-0 with wins against three potential playoff teams. They are the only NFL team that’s covered the spread each week. It might be time for their luck to finally run out.

Kansas City’s offense will face their toughest test of the young season in Week 5. The Texans are fifth in total defense, despite having faced Tom Brady and New England’s No.1 ranked offense. The Chiefs' offense ranks just behind the Patriots, but it’s hard to believe that will continue for much longer. Is Alex Smith going to keep leading the NFL in passer rating after averaging just 19 touchdowns in four seasons with Kansas City? Kareem Hunt looks like an elite running back, but let’s see if he can gain 100 yards from scrimmage for a fifth straight game against Houston’s front seven.

Deshaun Watson seems to be getting better with every game. He always performed well on the big stage in college, and he’s got a good chance to lead Houston to a win on national TV Sunday night.

Season Record: 7-12-1