NFL Picks 2017: Week 6 Best Bets Against The Spread

Several good teams are underdogs in Week 6, according to the latest Las Vegas betting odds. Playoff teams from a year ago like the Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions are getting more than a field goal on the road, while the Minnesota Vikings are home underdogs against a division rival.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 6 of the 2017 NFL season:

Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles could make the argument that they are the NFC’s best team with a win in Carolina Thursday night. As impressive as Philadelphia has been in 2017, they aren’t quite there yet, and it will show in a loss to the Panthers.

Cam Newton is in position to have a big performance on national TV. The quarterback has been terrific in the last two weeks. He totaled more than 315 passing yards, completed more than 75 percent of his throws and threw for three touchdowns in each game, beating good teams on the road. Philadelphia’s secondary remains their greatest weakness, ranking 30th in passing yards allowed. Newton’s ability to escape pressure will help neutralize the Eagles’ tough front seven, and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is a game-time decision.

Carson Wentz, on the other hand, could be in for his worst performance of the season. It’s probably the biggest game of his young career, and he’ll be without right tackle Lane Johnson. Wentz struggled when Johnson missed most of last season, and it could be an issue with players like Luke Kuechly and Kawann Short on the other side of the ball.

New York Jets (+9)

Who would have thought the Jets would be fighting for first place with the New England Patriots in Week 6? That’s the position New York finds themselves in, and they’ve actually got a good chance to keep Sunday’s game close.

New York’s defense has been better than expected, and Josh McCown can be serviceable as a starting quarterback. That might be the case against New England’s defense, which still has its issues after holding Tampa Bay to 14 points in Week 5. The Patriots are one competent field goal kicker away from being 2-3 and sitting in last place in the AFC East.

The Jets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games against the Patriots and 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games with New England overall, per OddsShark. Add in Tom Brady’s recent shoulder ailment, and the Jets might be within striking distance late in the fourth quarter.

Detroit Lions (+5)

If the New Orleans Saints are five-point favorites at home, that means they would be favored by two points over the Lions on a neutral field. But Detroit might actually be the better team, making them an easy pick in Week 6.

It’s hard to be convinced that the New Orleans pass defense is legitimate after just two wins, one of which came against the league’s worst offense. It was just a few weeks ago that the Saints made Sam Bradford look like Tom Brady, and the actual Tom Brady had his way with New Orleans the following week. Without any running game to speak of, Matthew Stafford still has a 97.4 passer rating on the year. The quarterback threw for 341 yards and two scores in a 28-13 win in New Orleans last season, and he had nearly a perfect passer rating at the Superdome in 2015.

Detroit is thought to be a lucky team. In many ways, they are, but they do deserve credit for staying in games and finding ways to win. Losing both of their games to maybe the NFC’s top two teams, the Lions were defeated by a combined seven points. Even if Detroit can’t pull off the upset, Sunday’s game will be another close one.

Minnesota Vikings (+3)

The Green Bay Packers are the favorites to win the NFC North, but they could have some company in first place after Week 6. Winning at Minnesota Sunday afternoon won’t be easy.

The Packers were unable to beat the Vikings on the road last year, losing 17-14 in Week 2. Aaron Rodgers was held to just 213 passing yards and a 70.7 passer rating, and Minnesota is one of the few teams that can contain the NFC’s best quarterback. Rodgers has posted a passer rating of worse than 87.0 in three of his last four starts against the Vikings. Minnesota hasn’t given up 20 points in any of their three home games.

Case Keenum won’t have to put up big numbers in order for the Vikings to pull off the upset. The quarterback has to avoid making costly mistakes. He can do so against the Packers, who have just one interception in the four games during which they haven't faced Mike Glennon. Keenum has a 97.6 passer rating in place of Sam Bradford this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs would barely be favored, if at all, over Pittsburgh, if the point spread was created before the start of the season. Sure, the Chiefs are better than expected, but the Steelers are being undervalued as nearly five-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh’s 30-9 loss to Jacksonville in Week 5 was an anomaly. Ben Roethlisberger might not throw five interceptions again in his career, and he had even more bad luck when the Jaguars returned two of those picks for touchdowns. The Steelers have too much talent on offense to continue to struggle for much longer, and the Chiefs haven’t exactly been winning because of their defense. Only five teams allow more yards per play than Kansas City. Pittsburgh’s defense has been among the best—though it’s been against weak competition—ranking third-best in yards allowed per play.

Pittsburgh got the better of Kansas City twice last season. After blowing out the Chiefs 43-14 in the regular season, the Steelers went on the road to beat the Chiefs 18-16 in the playoffs.

Season Record: 9-15-1