NFL Picks 2017: Week 9 Best Bets Against The Spread

Four teams, including three division leaders, are favored by at least a touchdown, according to the Week 9 Las Vegas betting odds. Three other teams that are currently in the postseason are favored on the road.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 9 of the 2017 NFL season:

Carolina Panthers (-1)

Through the first half of the season, the Atlanta Falcons have looked nothing like the team that nearly beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The betting line for their visit to Carolina should probably be closer to three points, making the Panthers a smart pick.

Much of the blame should probably go to offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, under whom Atlanta was held to 17 points or fewer in three straight losses before they beat the Jets in Week 8. The offense scored 25 points in the wet conditions of MetLife Stadium, but mustering that kind of production against Carolina’s defense will be difficult. The Panthers are fifth against the run and third against the pass after holding the Buccaneers to three points a week ago. A year after winning the NFL MVP award, Matt Ryan is 12th in passer rating with just nine touchdowns and six interceptions.

Cam Newton has been one of the league’s most perplexing players, looking good one week and terrible the next. The good version of Newton might show up against the defense that ranks dead last in takeaways.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7)

With a three-game lead over Tampa Bay in the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints can essentially eliminate the Bucs from contention with a win in the Superdome. Don’t be shocked if Tampa Bay pulls off the upset and remains in the divisional race for at least one more week.

The Buccaneers are too talented offensively to have another performance like they did in their 17-3 loss to the Panthers a week ago. The Bucs rank fifth in yards per play, and they are facing a Saints’ defense that, despite its improvements, ranks 26th in yards allowed per play. New Orleans continues to beat up on bad offenses, defeating teams like the Bears, Dolphins and the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. It won’t be as easy to stop Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson.

In their last 11 games at home against teams with losing records, the Saints are 3-8 against the spread, per OddsShark.

Seattle Seahawks (-7)

Seattle is playing their best football of the season, and they’ll host a Washington Redskins’ team that might be in the midst of a downward spiral. Washington has too many injuries for a chance at pulling off the upset in Week 9.

The Seahawks are beating good teams in every possible way. Three games ago they handed the Los Angeles Rams their second loss of the year by winning a defensive battle. In Week 8, Russell Wilson went toe-to-toe with Deshaun Watson and the Seahawks won in spite of the rookie’s four touchdown passes. Sunday could feature a bit of both with Kirk Cousins playing behind a banged-up offensive line and Wilson performing like he could make his way into the MVP conversation.

Seattle is 21-2 at home in their last 23 games against teams with losing records, per OddsShark. Washington is 9-23 in their last 32 road games.

Dallas Cowboys (+1)

The Cowboys are playing their best football of the year with consecutive road wins by a combined 44 points. Even without the suspended Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas has a good chance to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs when they return home.

The absence of Elliott is certainly a big one, but Dak Prescott and an elite offensive line should allow the Cowboys to keep playing at a high level. The quarterback has picked up where he left off in 2016 when he had one of the best seasons by a rookie signal caller ever. With 16 total touchdowns and two interceptions in his last five games, Prescott and Dallas have scored at least 28 points in each contest since Week 3. Kansas City still ranks first overall in yards per play, but Dallas is ahead of them over the last three games.

Kansas City has gone 5-2 with a top offense, but their defense could start costing them games against good teams. The Chiefs rank 30th in yards allowed per play.

Detroit Lions (-2.5)

It’s quickly becoming evident that the Green Bay Packers are among the worst NFL teams when Aaron Rodgers isn’t under center. Suffering two straight losses since losing their starting quarterback, Green Bay is about to have a three-game losing streak.

Playing at Lambeau Field didn’t help the Packers when they lost 26-17 to the Saints two weeks ago, and it probably won’t keep them from losing to Detroit. Brett Hundley had a 39.9 passer rating as the starting quarterback, and he posted a 39.6 passer rating the previous week when he played the majority of Green Bay’s 23-10 loss in Minnesota. Detroit ranks 11th in opponents’ passer rating. The Packers will have a difficult time scoring in double-digits if their No.18 ranked rushing attack doesn’t dominate Detroit.

The Lions have won three games by taking advantage of subpar quarterbacks. Detroit forced Carson Palmer to throw four interceptions in the season opener, and they beat Eli Manning and Case Keenum on the road. Stacking field goals against Brett Hundley might be enough to get the win in Green Bay.